Having had a closer look at the race, I've revised my opinion regarding Secret Reprieve. He has been raised 10 lbs for winning the Welsh National by three lengths. He is improving and appears to stay well, but you have to go back 80 years to find a seven-year-old winner! My shortlist at this stage would be: Kimberlite Candy (20/1 Bet365) Burrows Saint (20/1 Bet365) Annibale Fly (40/1 William Hill) The Storyteller (50/1 William Hill) If bet in the proportions: £10.26, £10.26, £5.26, £4.22 then £30 would return just over £215 for any one of the four to win. That represents >6/1 combined, or a 14.3% chance. Hopefully the combined chance of one of the four succeeding might be slightly better than that!
Secret Reprieve was 18th on my short list. The reason I omitted it was because of it's age. I'm closer to drawing up my list of six for the race. They include the first three you picked.
It's interesting the way the three Irish horses have been campaigned, Mr D. Anibale Fly is entered at Gowran Park on Saturday, while Burrows Saint is set to run in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on Saturday 27th February. They both need a chase run to qualify to run at Aintree. But both look to have been run sparingly with the Grand National in mind. The Storyteller is already qualified, but has had an interesting season. He had a couple of months off before running second in a Grade 1 hurdle at Christmas, and then second to Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup, where he recorded a career best over fences. And yet his only entry at Cheltenham is in the Stayers' Hurdle! I think 50/1 with Hills is massive - provided he runs!
