And you wouldn’t want the same organisation to model realistic other possible scenarios so you can weigh up the benefit of the decisions you’re making? How do you make informed decisions if you emit some of the most likely scenarios and models?
Certainly doesn't fit record numbers of infections on a daily basis and growing numbers of hospitalisations.
I read the thread on this on Twitter. If I understand it correctly they are not taking a “reasonable worst case” as they are assuming the effects of Omicron are the same as Alpha and Delta. All the evidence is it’s much milder and from the not allowed model show hospitals will be less stressed than last year if we do nothing as far fewer will be in hospital and for much shorter. The cynic in me wonders if The Blonde Clown is more concerned with distraction from their contempt for us last Christmas than actually doing the best for everyone
Pretty much all of that. And not specifically asking for real time data and models - just the worst case scenarios. Which explains why SAGE have been wrong at almost every corner but the public have been forced to lap it up
Hospitalisations at 7,500 as a seven day average and down on most dates in November and flat with most of December. A high percentage of those not even going in to hospital with Covid.
The current rate of growth really renders those figures irrelevant though, doesn't it? It won't take a very high percentage rate of hospitalizations at all to cause very serious problems. I expect further restrictions very soon - even though Boris would be dicing with political death if he imposes them.
Sadly I expect them too. Like last year when we had a 4wk circuit breaker lockdown last November to save Xmas. What did that achieve? Another 3 months of lockdown and many more months of restrictions. Wonder if we'll fo early or late next year, it's a bit like Easter in that it's a moveable feast.
Your last post mentioned increased hospitalisations. I’m just pointing out there isn’t an increase vs. December and a decrease vs. many November dates. Also pointing out that the hospitalisation number is massively skewed by how many people aren’t going to hospital because they have Covid. Only sharing the truths. It might spike upwards, but right now it isn’t.
1.7% of SA cases are leading to hospitalisations. In the last wave it was something like 17%. No increase in ICU needs despite rising cases either. These are the facts as they are today.
I’d say the evidence suggests we can when you take a holistic view of the damage lockdowns cause. But my main point was to correct you on the hospitalisations number - saying it’s increasing now and saying it will increase in the future are two different things.
Maybe it will, what did you read? Because I think the point is the reporting is far from balanced, its just sensationalist fear mongering in many places.
Yes if lockdowns were a clinical trial I would like go think they would have been stopped due to the damage they cause to public health.
According to The Times today the seven day rolling average for hospitalisations was 760 on 1 December and has risen since to 865 for the most recent-reported figure to 13 December. As infections are increasing daily it seems inevitable that the number of hospitalisations will also rise - possibly dramatically.
I someone argue this perfectly today. Men get erections. They just do. If hospitals were to constantly inspect every man in hospital for erections they would quite legitimately be able to say that there are thousands of men in hospital with an erection. Some of them will have even had an erection when they were sitting in a&e. Of course the amount of men in hospital because of an erection is much much lower and that is what's important.
Hospitalisations with or due to covid? The higher the number of people who harmlessly have covid the higher the number of people who will test positive for covid at a hospital. In a similar manner the number of people admitted to Tesco with covid has risen dramatically over the last month. The amount of people admitted to Tesco due to covid hasn't.