2nd Wave

I can see people's objections to herd immunity from the point of view of the number of extra people would have to die to get enough people infected - however this is based on huge assumptions about the numbers already infected, the number of people with T-Cell immunity and the cases per death ratio - none of which we have a real definitive number for.
As I said before, people who had SARs 10 years ago still have antibodies for it - and SARS is another Covid disease, so there's no reason to assume the same won't be the case here, with or without a vaccine.

 

Absolutely arguing agaisnt it on the grounds it will kill too many people is a rational standpoint. It's the ones who say it isn't possible I don't understand.

 

Which other infectious diseases have been eradicated using herd immunity without any available vaccine?

as far as I know it’s smallpox and Rinderpest and both were done after a vaccine was in place.

There’s your answer.


It’s also pushed by people who think that we should shield the vulnerable. If you shield the vulnerable regardless of the amount of additional deaths you are unlikely to hit a percentage where ‘herd immunity’ is conferred.

 

Polio - deaths in UK fell from ~750/year to significantly under 10 after vaccination was introduced.

But yes, herd immunity has yet to be achieved without an effective vaccination. And in some cases (measles) difficult to achieve with a vaccine thanks to Dr Wakefield.

 

Diseases as a rule are never eradicated and if anyone has that in mind as the goal then they are in for shock.
We are going to have to learn to live with this. I hope that doesn't mean living how we are now because it's awful at the moment.

 

Smallpox has been completely eradicated.
Polio is eradicated in most of the world - in 2017, a grand total of 22 cases were diagnosed (down from 350000 in 1988).
Measles was close (in the western world) until the nutters decided to stop getting vaccinations.

It is entirely possibly to eradicate a disease given sufficient money, time and will.

 

So no herd immunity just let it kill as many as it does and then hope for the best?

Not impossible to sell but would require a massive investment.

we will need a lot of investment in the NHS if we take that approach. We will need to fill the now 55000 vacant nursing positions as a starting point. We will need to stop all the outsourcing. We will need to fully staff the Nightingale Hospitals including recruiting doctors who can hit the ground running.

I’m definitely no NHS expert but I guess you would be looking at a 25-30 percent increase in budget

we would also need to replace SSP with something More generous akin to the Swedish model. Would need a wholesale review of other benefits and job support schemes. So again probably adding 25-50 percent onto the bill.

None of that is impossible though the fall out of what would undoubtedly be deaths above average of 60k-100k for up to 4 years in a best case scenario would be difficult for any govt to deal with. I just don’t see the tories greenlighting massive investment in tbe NHS or overhauling the benefit system.

 

Didn't it take around 20 years with the modern smallpox vaccine to get the job done though?
And around 200 years if we go from the first vaccine.

 

Almost fell for that but then I noticed it was the "Hate Mail". Don't believe a word....

 

Read something this morning about NHS workers developing an immunity from being in contact with the virus so often. I'd have thought that if they were testing positive they should be isolating. I put it down to lazy journalism from the BBC.

 

There’s plenty of places in the world you need proof of vaccinations for various diseases to enter.

For my last holiday I needed several vaccinations and had to carry proof with my passport.

it’s not a new ‘thing’ or unique to Covid, it’d be new for the whole world to do it for Covid though.

 

Yeah it's not a new thing. I remember as a kid my uncle got ill from the jabs he had to take before an holiday to Egypt. If a country gets herd immunity through enough people having a vaccine then you can't blame that country not taking a risk of someone coming there with covid. Hopefully though so a vaccine isn't mandatory there is a quick reliable test someone can take at the airport on arrival as an alternative so they have a choice.

 

Cheers Farnham. Still looks to be a good 6 months or more away. It doesn't say anything about cost either - I doubt if the NHS will be able to fund a national roll-out without massive extra cash from the Government.

 

Don't worry about it, Diana Harding is working 19 hour days, 7 days a week to get things done according to Nadhim Zahawi this morning....