Betfair Chase (Grade 1) Haydock, Sat 23 November 2019, 3 M 1 F There are presently 11 entries for this race, but the following horses have alternative engagements: Altior Said to be being aimed at the 1965 Chase at Ascot, 23 Nov Elegant Escape Favourite for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, 30 Nov Might Bite Said to be being aimed at Listed Chase, Aintree, 7 Dec Black Corton Said to be being aimed at the Peterborough Chase, Huntingdon, 8 Dec In addition, the following two entries appear doubtful runners, looking somewhat outclassed in the context of this Grade 1 chase: Tout Est Premis Ran Thurs 14/11/19 at Clonmel (4th of 5, beaten 22+ lengths) Valtor Pulled up in the Grand National last time out and Nicky Henderson says he is giving thought to hurdles races for him in view of his handicap mark In the absence of the above runners, this would leave 5 entries Balko Des Flos Has won 3 of 18 chase starts. Finished in front of Bristol De Mai and Elegant Escape at Aintree (3rd of 6) in the Betfair Bowl, April. But those two may have been feeling the effects of a long season and their run in the Gold Cup the previous month. The balance of his form appears to leave him 5-6 lbs short of the principals even on his best form. Ballyoptic Won the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, 2 Nov by 3.75 lengths from Elegant Escape. He has an alternative engagement in the Becher Chase (7 Dec) and was aimed at the Grand National last year, where he fell. Is 6-7 lbs shy of the two at the head of the market and at nine years old is no certainty to find the improvement required here. Lostintranslation Jumped superbly in a Graduation Chase at Carlisle first time out this season, but that was a Listed race against only three opponents and this looks a much tougher race for a horse only just out of novice chases. Bristol De Mai Is a top class chaser, unbeaten in four starts at Haydock, including the last two runnings of this race. He has two pounds in hand of Frodon on Timeform ratings and one pound in hand on Racing Post ratings. He has done little wrong at Haydock, but elsewhere has occasionally been prone to mistakes. He comes here without a prep run, although he did the same when winning last year. Frodon Is also top class, and has won 4 of his last 6 starts, culminating in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at this year’s Festival. He needed his prep race at Aintree, where the omission of fences due to low sun did not benefit him given that he is a superb jumper of fences. He has won over this trip, and his jumping makes him the sort of horse to put pressure on Bristol De Mai’s jumping. Paul Nicholls says this “is a race he is made for”. Summary: Bristol De Mai is currently best priced 7/4 favourite, whereas FRODON is available at 7/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power and 888 Sport. The ante post place terms are currently 1/5 odds, 3 places. Frodon would therefore appear to look outstanding each way value should the race cut up as anticipated.
Part One of the plan succeeds. Six horses declared at the five day stage: Altior, Ballyoptic, Bristol De Mai, Elegant Escape, Frodon and Lostintranslation. Altior remains most unlikely to run over 25 Furlongs in soft ground on it's first chase start beyond two miles and is an intended runner at Ascot.
