O/T Cheltenham Day 3...

Some big fields to have some E/W's today:

1:20 Chantry House, Shan Blue and Fussil Raffles.
1:55 Imperial Alcezar, Brinkley and Storm Arising.
2:30 Allaho, Min and Fakir D' Oudairies.
3:05 Sire Du Berlais, Fury Road and If the Cap Fits.
3:40 A Wave of the Sea, Sully D' Oc AA and Caribean Boy.
4:15 Hook Up, Glens of Antrim and Gauloise.
4:50 Deise Aba and Shantou Flyer.

 

Going in balls deep there, SD?

My bets are proving very thin gruel this week, Honeysuckle excepted. Anyway, it's a long game, and all about longer-term percentages, so FWIW:

2.30 Min would have been much shorter for this if he hadn't pulled up at Leopardstown in February, in my opinion. Winner of three of his last six - all at Grade 1 - if he brings his A-game his form is simply much better than anything else in this. 9/2 represents a cracking price for such a usually-consistent horse in my view.

3.05 Similar to above, Paisley Park is the best horse in this field and wins if producing his best. His last two runs, including when coming late and fast (finsihing sectional 105% for those who like that sort of thing) at Ascot have been within three pounds of his career best. On only his third run of the season he will surely have been primed for today. 2/1 is very fair, in my view.

 

Today is proper big fields, I'm well up for this.

1.20 - Fav should win, unbeaten and made of titanium. Asterion Forlonge can't jump. Blackbow not good enough. Fusil Raffles too inconsistent. However, there are 8 runners so some each way thievery could be rife. Shan Blue a sound jumper, who will probably set it up for the fav, but should be placed. Darver Star a wild one at a big price - third in last year's Champion Hurdle and finally gets good ground after swimming in heavy all winter.

1.55 - One of the hardest races ot the week. Pick something that's an improving young horse or something that's been running on soft ground all winter that will improve for good.

2.30 - This is the race of the Festival for me. About 10 genuine grade one horses. There's about 4 or 5 horses who will go forward - Allaho, Min, Melon, Calvados, Dashel, amongst others. This will probably set it up for a closer - Mister Fisher finished on the heels of 3 of these last year on unfavoured soft ground and I make him the bet of the day.

3.05 - Paisley Park a worthy favourite and he's a fabulous horse. But I think he's vulnerable here on the ground. The trouble is, I'm not sure what with. There's lots of slow horses in the race - although it's a very big fields. If The Cap Fits won the Stayers Hurdle at Aintree two years ago on good ground, and has been chasing round top class novice chasers this winter whilst looking uncomfortable jumping the big obstacles. Fury Road finished placed in the race won by Monkfish last year and might be value too.

3.40 - You need something up with the pace in this. There's a million runners and the track gets very narrow at times. Mister Whittaker ran well last year, and The Shunter is a worthy favourite - they had about 12 options and run here. Coole Cody and Laskalin will be my darts - both hopefully up with the race.

I don't care about the 4.15 and the last race looks a graveyard. Might have a bet in that if I've had a few winners.

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1.20 - Darver Star

1.55 - Mrs Milner and Everglow

2.30 - Mister Fisher

3.05 - If The Cap Fits

3.40 - Coole Cody and Laskalin

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Time for a few each doubles and trebles

 

Nice analysis and reasoning, Fonzie!

 

Same with yours.

Words can mean very little though....

 

The first day I didn't have as many selections. I got £62 back so topped up my selections for yesterday. I got £98 back yesterday so used that to top up my selections for today and tomorrow. All my bets are on now so anything I get back (fingers crossed) today or tomorrow is hopefully going back in the bank of Laura

 

Interesting views as always on the gee gee thread guys. I think this is a real minefield today. So many in with a shout in today's races it's sometimes going to be down to luck/mistakes and jockey skill/timing with some of these. Also, if the going is pretty much the same as yesterday I'm not looking for anything that's going to be held up too far off the pace unless the pace looks like it's going to be bonkers up front.. Made that mistake yesterday with one of mine and noticed it with some others which finished late but didn't give themselves enough of a chance early on. So, for what it's worth and also bearing in mind I'm looking for anything undervalued (in my opinion) or has some meat in the price.....

1.20 Cant back Envoi Allen in this even if he should win. Barmy price. Chatham Street Lad looks like he's come into some excellent form and has enough pace to trouble the favourite in a tough race

1.55 Champagne Platinum - relatively lightly raced and will be more experienced at this distance after a good run at Haydock last time out. Has a turn of foot

2.30 Min will proabably win imo but it should be close and Perhaps Fakir D'Oudaries can give him most to do if that Leopardstown run has freshened him back up. He knows these fences. Not decided if I'm punting on this yet

3.05 Paisley Park but I'm not backing it a that price - there are still some potential upsets in the background for me. If I was to back anything else at a price I might go for Vinndication, switched back to hurdles after chasing for the last three years. May be a fly in the ointment that one. Not sure if I'm betting on this though

3.40 There are about 12 horses I can see with a chance in this! With that in mind I think anything that looks likely to come on for a decent run recently may do well. So, I will be having a small amount on The Unit and Dead Right. Both lightly raced comparatively and they both look undervalued in the market and could outrun their odds. There are 6 places on the exchange available on this race at the moment too (they might open up another place later)

4.15 Hook Up, Gauloise. Royal Kahala and The Glancing Queen all have decent chances in my book here but I think I'll probably go with Tellmesomethinggirl. I think the trip will be right for it, it has pace and Blacmore will get the best out of it. I'll probably have a punt.

4.50 Not punting but if I was it would be Shantou Flyer simply because he doesnt really run a bad race - he'll give you a run for your money unless he falls over!

As always with my betting I'll be looking at each way and the place markets to see what price I can get. Happy punting boys and girls

 

Interesting you mention jockeyship. I don't think Paul Townend has covered himself in glory this week. He seems to be caught in two minds when kicking off the turn whether to come down the stand side or stay against the far rail. I thought he should have won on Concertista if he'd waited and although I was on Sir Gerhard I thought he gave Kilcrut a Horlix of a ride.

It's been one of them weeks where I'm probably biased because he's gone down on Gerhard Du Mesnil, Concertista and Chacun Pour Soi and Saint Sam and won when I haven't been on him or not had enough on him (Appreciate It).

 

https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/horse-racing/OB_EV20071694

Jack Kennedy has some real good rides today. If he wins on the heavy favourite in the first the 5/2 for two or more winners will have a great chance.

 

Following my not cashing out my yankee yesterday i have limited funds today so have decided just to bet on horses to place.

I have gone for the following:
1:20pm - Darver Star
1:55pm - Storm Arising
2:30pm - Mr Fisher
3:05pm - If The Cap Fits
3:40pm - A Wave of the Sea
4:15pm - Glens of Antrim

That's purely down to hunches, what the Racing Post Spotlight says and my poor understanding of form/knowledge of jockeys and trainers.

 

Had a decent first day, poor 2nd day so decided to just have speculative punts today. A couple of places at the expected prices could see me in profit though having said that they may all have pu in the race analysis after and it doesn't stand for pi..ed up as in won easily
1.20 Chatham Street Lad
1.55 Come On Teddy
2.30 Min
3.5 Lisnagar Oscar
3.40 Champagne Court
4.15 Perfect Myth
4.50 Morning Vicar though they should give it a 5lb allowance with NDB riding it

 

Naming my horses on here usually ends up with em flopping so I gave that up years ago but after yesterday I shall try a bit of reverse Psychology and hope for some luck.

1.20 Shan Blue E/W
1.55 Spiritofthegames E/W
2.30 Min E/W
3.05 Paisley Park
3.40 Happy Diva E/W
4.15 Royal Kahala E/W
4.50 Kilfilum Cross/ Bob Mahler E/W

Good luck one and all.

 

They've just interviewed the bloke with the big bet. He's a right boring *******. I'd be jumping round like a mad man.

 

I hope he cashed out, or he'll be committing suicide right now...

 

Well done Stephen. Spoiler alert, don't look at his selections if you're watching it later

 

How much was it please Fonzie

 

He stood to win 500k.

The cash out was 275k.

He came to an agreement with the bookie for a partial cash out for 322k if it won and 220k(ish) if it lost.

I'd say he's happy.

 

We're on the board with Mrs Milner!

 

Slight profit with Come On Teddy placed for me. Well done

 

Good job it's quiet at work, got cricket and the racing on the go at the mo