538 is the site ran by Nate Silver, the statistician that predicted the exact outcome of the 2012 US election. Pretty decent if they've given us a 16% chance of going up.
If you go back to last season the probability of relegation was 90% on 15th July... reflects the amazing turnaround to be fair!
If we can keep this run going through March, with another three or four wins, I think we'll make the play-offs. May not beat Bournemouth.