Just please remember this - from the BBC. It’s ‘remarkably uncommon’ to die from this if you’re under 65 with no pre-existing conditions.
Lots of fit and healthy people under the age of 65 have died, one being my mate who was 52. With no lockdown or restrictions thousands of people under the age of 65 would have died.
These figures taken up to April 24th do suggest that the chances of you dying rise significantly in your 40s.
You're right that does seem to be the first range where it has a significant movement. As with all stats you can order them in different ways to give a different interpretation.
Yes agreed. And that doesn’t take into account pre-existing medical conditions, which when accounted for raise the ‘at risk’ age still further.
I don't know about up to 65. I always use up to 45 as a yard stick. As you can see from the graph above, it barely registers. Big problem, particularly for men, is that between 45 and 65 an unhealthy lifestyle can have taken its toll. Overweight, high blood pressure, flirting with type 2 diabetes, maybe no diagnosed health condition, but out of breath walking up to the park. If you're not in good health in that age bracket it can get you.I can't think of a better advertisement to get healthy, as this might be with us for a long, long time and it's never too late to start.
Boris just said no later than July for hospitality when before that moment it was no earlier than July, so I don't think he knows his own plan, however if he didn't just make a mistake that's a good thing.
Risk from all factors increases with age and this is further exacerbated by obesity, poor diet and underlying health issues. COVID is not different from most diseases in that respect, people with weaker immune systems are worst hit. The issue is how life can resume to normality for the many without placing undue risk on the vulnerable? Given that no government has done this before and this disease is relatively new makes the approach extremely difficult. It’s a very easy message to say stay at home, much harder to start to relax a lockdown. For the avoidance of doubt I still think Johnson is moronic but I’d don’t believe the answer is simply to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is produced.
What about long-term effects of contracting it on your hitherto unblemished health record? I probably won't die if I get it but what will my heart, lungs and liver be like afterwards and for years to come?
We won't know the long-term effects of COVID infection for 20-30 years (or longer). It could easily leave us with a generation with reduced lung or kidney function or immune system - and even impaired cognition has been suggested (that was from an interview with the Belgian medic that was part of the team that identified Ebola). It is entirely feasible that those that have recovered from COVID actually have a lower chance of survival of the second wave due to this.
I think what Jay is talking about is already happening informally. People have seen the link between age and dying of the virus. The young flit about without a care, you see them in parks, cars, shops and generally milling around together. I, in my mid fifties, keep away from everybody who isn't my household, and that's everywhere. It's drilled in now. And I see lots of other older people taking care not to get too close. Problem is how do you keep these age groups separate and have a reasonable return to normal life? 18-30 pubs? 0-45 football matches? No entry for young people living in mixed age households?
Thing is, a lot of underlying health issues are undiagnosed. There's been a few runners and footballers who've suddenly dropped dead with unknown heart conditions.
What counts as a pre-existing medical condition? There are 3m + with diabetes. 5.4m with asthma. 7.4m with heart/circulation problems. 28% of adults are thought to be obese - thats another 12m+. Hypertension is another 12.5m. I know a lot of people will fall into multiple categories (overweight and diabetic and hypertension), but that is a large chunk of the population at elevated risk - and plenty of other medical conditions.
Absolutely right, there are, but we can't legislate for all the extreme outliers like these and let them dictate policy for the many millions of healthy individuals otherwise you're into the land of banning all sport etc. I don't know when people got this idea that it's either possible or desirable to have a risk-free existence.