Expected Goals stats from Saturday

Found the below on the experimental361 website and thought it gave a really interesting insight into Saturday's game which is worth sharing.

Couple of things to note - based on the quality of chances created Villa's expected Goals were 1.6, which suggests getting 3 flattered them somewhat.

Secondly a vast chunk of their expected goals came from the (disputed) penalty. Strip that out and the underlying story is that there really wasn't much to choose between the two sides.

Posting this because it really fits with how I saw the game. I didn't think we were anywhere near as dire as some have suggested. Yes, we didn't create lots - certainly not as much as in previous games. But I also felt that it was actually a fairly close game that on another day could have gone either way - which seems to be backed up.

 

You also have to take into account that Villa were two up at half time. They didn't have to force the play and simply controlled it with men behind the ball. Whilst both players gave it away on occasion, CH and GW didn't get out of second gear and sat in front of the back four dictating Villa's play and fending off our attacks.

We had a hell of a lot of time and space on the ball in the second half where Villa invited us to attempt to play through them as they sat deep with an organised defensive line. Would it have been like that at 0-0? I highly doubt it, but that's football.

 

When we are not playing well, which we didn't, these are the games we should be drawing 0-0. Villa were as poor, but we still have that soft underbelly where we are likely to gift a goal or .....or 3! It's a work in progress though so we hopefully should get tighter.