Excess Deaths in the UK: 55k - 61k up to May

Watcher_Of_The_Skies · May 19, 2020

It should be noted that in his own Twitter post he says a "cautious estimate" might be as many as 61,200 (he says 62,100 in the original tweet, then corrects himself)

"Probably too cautious. That was largely a deliberate choice as I do not want the numbers to be alarmist. The forecast from two weeks (50,200) ago is already lower than the known number of excess deaths so far."
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These numbers include non-Covid deaths resulting indirectly from Covid causing so many problems in health settings, but it is also likely to include Covid deaths that have not been reported as Covid. Note the current official death toll IIRC is nearly 35,000. From the Guardian

Nick Stripe, head of the health analysis and life events division at the Office for National Statistics, told the BBC a few minutes ago that the total number of excess deaths in the UK - the number above what might expected at this time of year, judged by a five-year average, was just under 55,000 by early May.

Scientists, and ministers, have repeatedly said that the excess death figures will ultimately prove the most reliable guide as to how badly the UK has been hit by coronavirus.

Stripe told the BBC:

Across England and Wales up to 8 May we are now looking at an excess deaths figure of just under 50,000. If we look at the UK as a whole, that is just under 55,000 excess deaths.

So the gap between Covid-related and excess is about 25% of excess deaths are not explained by Covid being on the death certificate. And that is now a key area of research for us to get underneath that, to understand that.

Stripe said that within the next couple of weeks the ONS planned to publish more research looking at why the excess deaths figure was so high. But he said a report published by the ONS on Friday, on deaths in April, did shed some light on what was happening. He went on:

That showed that deaths from dementia and Alzheimer disease had gone up very, very significantly during April, as had deaths from something known as “ill-defined conditions”. That is often where the certifying doctor puts things like frailty or old age on the death certificate. Usually in the very old, where there might not be a specific morbidity, but the patient has been unwell, you’ll often get these ill-defined conditions. And they were up significantly as well in April.

Stripe said there could be two reasons for this increase. First “normal care pathways” could be disrupted; ie, fewer patients were going to hospital, because the hospitals were concentrating on coronavirus. Second, coronavirus might be a factor in these deaths, without doctors being able to confirm that. He explained:

There may be some cases where Covid is present but it is not obvious to the certifying doctor that that is the case.

And it may be the case that this big jump in the number of dementia and Alzheimer deaths could explain part of that reason there. It could well be that in the very old, if the patient is not able to describe their symptoms very well, there may be many other co-morbidities, that perhaps the doctor has not felt able, in the absence of a positive test, to put Covid on the death certificate.
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Excess Deaths in the UK: 55k - 61k up to May

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Excess Deaths in the UK: 55k - 61k up to May

Watcher_Of_The_Skies Well-Known Member

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