Bolton Home - Preview and Predictions

After the greatest comeback Oakwell has seen since, well, probably Callum Simpson's last fight, the Reds get the immediate opportunity to make it back to back home league wins for the first time since January (vs Wrexham & Crawley). We welcome a Bolton side who floundered at the end of last season, though defeated Plymouth last week to end a run of 7 winless league 1 games. Stephen Schumacher's new side were seemingly quite comfortable against his old side at the *shudders* Toughsheet Community Stadium, limiting our opponents from the week before to just 3 shots in the game (0 on target). The Reds are slight outsiders for this one at 17/10, with the Trotters as narrow 16/11 favourites to pick up 3 points.


After 4 and a half years, 261 games, 2 failed league 1 play-off campaigns, and hundreds of needlessly angry and aggressive interviews, Ian Evatt was relieved of his duties as Bolton prison guard on 22nd January, with Schumacher (no relation to Michael, Mick or Ralph), taking the wheel just 8 days later. Wanderers we're 9th in the table, 3 points off the play-offs when Evatt was dismissed, and 7th but level on points when Schumacher took to the drivers seat, after 2 victories under the caretakership of Julian Darby, Andy Taylor and Andrew Tutte (and you think we have a lot of coaches). Schumacher's early reign saw inconsistency, albeit mainly positive results, with 5 wins from his first 8 races. Bolton swiftly reversed back down the table with just 2 wins in their final 11 league games, including a heavy defeat at Oakwell. Despite ending the season just 2 places outside of the play-offs, the gap to Leyton Orient in 6th had widened to 10 points.


I always like to make this point, but since drawing with Bolton at Oakwell in 2018, which all but sealed our relegation to league one, and their fans singing "we'll never play you again", Bolton haven't played any side more than Barnsley since then, with this being meeting number 13 in just over 4 years. Our recent record over Bolton is pretty good. Including play off games, we've won the last 3 meetings, and lost just 2 of the last 13 over 90 minutes. Those 2 defeats did both come at Oakwell, albeit the first saw Mads Andersen dismissed after just 10 minutes. Adam Phillips has 6 goals or assists vs Bolton during his time at Oakwell, and given his early season form both this season and last, might be worth keeping an eye out for in this one.


Just 2 familiar faces in the Bolton ranks, both in attack. Victor Adeboyejo signed from Leyton Orient in the summer of 2017, eventually making 85 league appearances for the Reds, netting 7 times, a tally he surpassed in his 26 league games for Burton before a big money move to Bolton. He's featured 81 times in the league for the Trotters, finding the net 16 times, though he won't be present for the game on Saturday as he has been absent since February with a knee injury. John McAtee had a much more prolific spell at Oakwell the season before last, finding the target 12 times in 42 league games. He signed for Bolton last summer and has a slightly less prolific record of 11 in 47 league games for them. For the Reds, obviously, Luca Connell played for Bolton 10 times in the Championship back in the 18/19 season, Josh Earl spent 9 games there on loan the following season, and Nathaniel Ogbeta had a 16 game spell there on loan the season before last, scoring twice.


It was the goals against column that ultimately cost Bolton last season; their last line of defence was as leaky as a colander (though not quite as leaky as ours). Similarly to us, they haven't had a large turnover in personnel at the back, though they have switched from a back 3 to a back 4. Long standing centre back Ricardo Santos has gone to Swansea, presumably to win every header but be incredibly clumsy with the ball at his feet for them. Oddly, his only competitive game for Bolton since mid January was at Oakwell, having missed the majority of the second half of the season through injury. I've often criticised Bolton in the last few years for heavily strengthening in attack, and neglecting their defence, and this year is no exception. 2 strikers and 4 wingers have been added to the numerous attacking options they already have. Aaron Collins has dropped down a division to MK Dons, and Dion Charles moved to Huddersfield in January, so they do have a significant number of goals to try and replace. FlashScore does credit them with having 11 forwards though; that's more attackers than the Refor... Sorry, I'll leave politics out of this thread. Ethan Erhahon in midfield is a solid acquisition from Lincoln, and the fantastically named Amario Cozier-Duberry, on loan from Brighton, played a significant number of Championship games for Blackburn last season and has plenty of pedigree from coming through the ranks at Arsenal. Their lineup for last week's victory over Plymouth was, Sharman-Lowe in goal, Osei-Tutu RB, Toal and Johnston at CB, Conway LB, Sheehan and Simons in the middle of the park, Cozier-Duberry on the left, Gale on the right, with Joel Randall behind Mason Burstow.


Another quiet week in terms of transfer business at Oakwell. After last week's preview though, we did sign Tennai Watson, who is likely to make his first league start after a steady introduction in the cup this week. The only outgoing since has obviously been Kacper Lopata, which will come as a surprise to absolutely nobody, except the people who have sporadically started the 'what about Lopata' threads. A selection headache may present itself at centre half; Shepherd is likely to regain his place after suspension, and with MDG seemingly picking up a knock, the likelihood is that we have 2 left footed centre halves starting the game. Unless Conor opts for Barratt alongside Shepherd, however that would be a very brave call given neither are blessed with much experience at the level. I also wonder whether Hourihane opts to bring Russell into the side given his exploits on Wednesday night, though it would be harsh on Vimal Yoganathan. Whilst Kelly also impressed, it's hard to see Conor dropping Connell given he's the captain. Then there's the conundrum of whether Cleary gets a start, and who he starts ahead of. He can play anywhere along that front line, though it's difficult to make a case for dropping any of DKD, 'Didzy' *shudders again*, or Vickers given their respective starts to the season. Conor faces his first major selection headache; and whilst we look quite stacked in midfield, maybe 1 short up front, we still feel very unequipped at the back. I'm going for Cooper, Watson, Shepherd, Earl, Ogbeta, Russell, Connell, Phillips, Vickers, McGoldrick, DKD.


Lee Doughty is the referee, the smug little get. There's often been some sort of controversy when he's taken charge of our games, of which there have been 9 (won 2, drawn 5, lost 2). There's been 5 penalties in those games (I think) though, dare I say it, no red cards. Well, he did dismiss Jo Laumann for fighting with Rory Delap when we faced Stoke during the covid season, presumably for breaking social distancing rules. His most recent game in charge of the Reds was our bizarre 4-3 defeat at Leyton Orient over easter weekend. He's officiated 5 Bolton games, of which they've won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2. He did take charge of our 1-1 draw at the Reebok (I'm not saying the real name again) in February 24, awarding 6 yellow cards. He took charge of his first game of the season on Tuesday, Coventry's 1-0 win over Luton in the Cup, with just one yellow card for the Hatters. A stead average of 4.15 yellows last season, and only 2 red cards, he's not a particularly card happy referee.


We've made a promising start to the season, though last weekends victory indicated a couple of things. We still have a tendency to be whimsical when it comes to defending; the first goal was probably unfortunate, the second was all too familiar. Hopefully another change in personnel at the back will see to that. Though it also showed that we have some fight in us. Too often in the past, we'd have gone 2 down, made drastic changes to the formation and playing staff, and either gone further behind, or fallen just short. Conor was measured in his approach, nothing too drastic, and trusted the 11 on the pitch to turn the game around. It's certainly the first time I can remember us coming from 2 down to win at home, and I can only remember us doing it once away whilst I've been watching the Reds (and that was 19 years ago). So I'm optimistic for this one. I do think Bolton are a side in transition, who can be got at defensively. Again, I don't trust us to keep a clean sheet, though they're unlikely to sit back and try and soak up pressure, which will suit us and our attacking options. In terms of a bet, I think Adam Phillips to score anytime at 17/2 represents great value. He's got 3 goal contributions already, has linked up well with Vickers and started last season in fine form too. As for the result, I honestly think this has a high scoring draw written all over it, but I'm going for optimism, and predicting another 3-2 home win.


You Reds!

 

Win 3 0 cosgrove hat trick

 

They like us look great going forward and shaky at the back.

The new wingers they've signed in particular look extremely dangerous. Big task for those playing full back this weekend. Seems like one that will have goals in it.

Will be our toughest game too I think. Would take a draw to be honest as 7 points from the opening three games would be a good return.

I'm going to say a 2-2 draw. But hopefully the reds can get the win!

 

Reds 2-2 Rodneys

 

3-3. Entertaining attack fest with multiple examples of how not to defend.

 

Colliers Trotters .

 

I'm pushing t'booat art on this one...

4-1 Tarn

Vickers, Yogi, DKD, Russell

12,793

 

Great read as always mate so cheers for that.

I’m putting a tenner on BTTS on every game we play this season. It’s going well so far.

 

It won't be 0-0 , going for another 3-2 home win

 

For some reason I've got a bad feeling about this one. High expectations, decent crowd, probably quite a few people attending their first game of the season. I'm going for a disappointing 0-3 defeat and meltdown on here about how we've failed to strengthen in defence despite knowing how light we are there. Maybe in the long run not such a terrible thing, just to keep expectations realistic. We've got masses of hugely exciting attacking talent in the side, but the inexperience of a lot of the lads means it'll be difficult for them to consistently hit their A-game every match.

I'm now going to caveat all of this by saying that if our attacking players continue to look as fast and incisive as they have done so far, there's no reason why we can't go out there and give Bolton another absolute hiding like we did last season. If we can pick up 7 or 9 points this week and keep up the exciting football we've seen so far, it's going to be very difficult not to start dreaming.

 

Possibly the easiest free money you'll ever make! What are the odds though? About 1 to 4?

 

0-125

 

2-2

 

Another great write up.

It’s our fourth game of the season, and most likely our fourth different centre-back pairing. That said, everything in front of them is looking promising, so chances are it’ll be another BTTS game. As for the result, my head says draw… but the giddy little child within is shouting 3-1 to the Reds.

 

A cracking morning dump read Archey. Thank you! Really enjoy your previews mate.

Anyway. I’m going for 4-2 reds in a thriller. As you say, Both sides have fantastic attacking options and can’t defend. McGolrick X2, DKD and a bullet header from Shep.

 

A 0-0 thriller

 

A 0-0 thriller

 

2-0 COYR

 

Usually get around 1.7

 

5-3 Reds

McGoldrick, DKD (2), Vickers, Phillips

15,101

Lottery
2, 10, 11, 21, 25, 34
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