Burton Home - Preview and Predictions

Our home record last season was abysmal. Only 3 teams (including Burton) were worse on home soil. Even Crawley and Bristol Rovers were better at home than us, and they were both relegated. Oakwell regularly had the same atmosphere as outer space last season, and given season ticket sales are likely down, I can't see it changing much this year, unless there's something to get giddy about on the pitch. We get to see what improvements (if any) have been made to the match day experience, aside from a price freeze on food and drink which, despite what the club wants you to think, nobody asked for. I wonder if they've given my 'Callum Simpson fights all comers' idea any consideration.

The first game at Oakwell in 106 days, sees Burton Albion visit for just the 9th time (or 10th if you include the game which was postponed shortly before kick off). The Reds are 6/7 favourites to make a solid start on home soil, with the Brewers as 3/1 outsiders.

Gary Bowyer's side were 9 points adrift from safety with just 12 on the board when he took charge last December. With no wins in their first 13 games, and just 2 when the former Dundee man took charge, it was difficult to see a way out for Burton. It wasn't instant success either, 6 more games without victory, before a run of 1 defeat in 10 (5 wins) saw Burton start to slowly climb the ladder, akin to Shawn Michaels at Wrestlemania 10. By the final game of the season, they were safe, after a 1-1 draw with Wigan at the Pirelli, and a total points haul of 47. The Brewers only gained 1 more point at home than they did away, albeit they ended the campaign, winless in 4 away from home, but with 1 defeat in 5 (vs Birmingham) at home. They've continued that run into this season, with an opening day victory over Mansfield Town in the 'somewhere in the Midlands derby'. Described by fans and coaches on both sides as a 'narrow win', and 2 sides separated by 2 piledrivers from Charlie Webster. The former Chelsea man unleashed a curling effort into the top right corner in the first half, and found the bottom right after some neat 1, 2 play just after the break. Nigel Clough conceeded that Burton probably did deserve the points, though the 2 world class goals were probably the difference. The stats seem to suggest that Mansfield had the lions share of possession and the better chances, though from the highlights, they were guilty of some lacklustre finishing.

Burton are a side who we do have a favourable home record against. We've won 4, drawn 3 and lost just once in the 8 times we've met at Oakwell. They've all been within the last 11 years too. We've only failed to keep a clean sheet in 2 of those games, and have an aggregate score of 12-3. On paper, it should be the ideal game to try and set a blueprint for what Conor expects in front of a home crowd. Conor himself has form in this fixture, scoring in Burton's first 2 visits to Oakwell, a 5-0 Reds win in the FA Cup in 2014, and the winner from the penalty spot in the teams first ever league meeting, almost 10 years ago to the day (well, it's 6 days out {and it was my 26th birthday}). Devante Cole used to like playing Burton, in the same way that his dad used to like playing us. Cole Jr had 5 goals at Oakwell vs Burton, including a brace in both of our last two home wins vs the Brewers.

There are familiar faces aplenty in the Burton side, more specifically in the back line and goalkeeping areas. It's a who's who of mediocre former defensive players. Obviously, Kyren Lofthouse made his switch to Burton permanent in the summer, having never nailed down a regular place for the Reds in his 2 years with the club. Jason Sraha is in his second season at Albion, having spent a season at Shrewsbury after leaving the Reds after just 2 league appearances. Jasper Moon regains his place in the heart of the Brewers defence, having spent last season on loan at Harrogate; he didn't get much of an opportunity to sample the tea rooms whilst in North Yorkshire, featuring 46 times for the Sulphurites in all competitions last season. Toby Sibbick is a new addition for the Brewers this summer; his Barnsley career had just about got going when he was transferred to Hearts, during the now infamous "is Paul Conway on crack?" season. Finally, Harry Isted, who's career has stuttered and stalled more times than my old Punto on a cold day. His 22 game stint at Oakwell seemed to be the platform for his career as a number 1 to take off; he declined the chance to stay permanently at Oakwell, before a stop start time at Charlton, and a largely 2nd fiddle stint to date at Burton. It's probably also worth mentioning (or not) Tomas Kalinauskas, who spent a couple of years in the youth ranks at Oakwell between 2021 & 2023, though I think never made a first team appearance; he's currently out on loan from Burton to a side in Sweden. In the Reds side, Josh Earl made 8 appearances for Burton during the 20/21 season, and DKD featured 19 times, scoring 5 goals for the Brewers during 22/23.

Burton could have had their own Sky Sports news channel for all of the business they've done this summer. An envious 10 incomings and 19 outgoings suggests that Albion could have a very different looking side to the one we faced as recently as February, with only 6 of their starting lineup that day still at the club. The Brewers up tick in form at the back end of last season coincided with Jamaican international Rumarn Burrell hitting a rich vein of form, getting 8 of his 11 league goals in the new year, as well as the arrival of Jon Dadi Bodvarsson in January. Neither remain at the Pirelli Stadium, with Burrell earning a move to QPR, and JDB moving back to his native Iceland. They do still have dependable centre half, Udoka Godwin-Malife, who's form also improved under the guidance of Bowyer. Fabio Tavares has also made his move to the Pirelli a permanent one, after a spell on loan last season; he was significantly involved in Coventry's run to the FA Cup Semi-Final the season before last, impressing as the Sky Blues were eventually defeated by Man Utd on penalties. One thing that strikes me about Burton, is that they only have 1 player over the age of 30 these days; Burton sides in recent memory have often had a few older heads in the side, with the likes of John Brayford, Kyle McFadzean, Jake Buxton, Stephen Quinn, Lloyd Dyer and Stephen Bywater all previously in Burton squads to face the Reds. Burton could be boosted with a return from injury for young holding midfielder, Dylan Williams, though are likely to be without Guyana International, Terence Vancooten, who was ruled out of the season opener after an injury vs Derby in a friendly.

At the time of writing, there's been no further incomings or outgoings at Oakwell. Our midfield options remain stacked, but we're down to the bare bones along the back. Whilst Roberts appears to be out, Shepherd definitely is, meaning our makeshift full backs from last weekend will likely take up a more familiar role in the middle of the back 4. Ogbeta will likely come in on the left to make his competitive debut, and Bland seems the natural selection at right back. Connell will retain his place as the midfield anchor and Phillips as the... Erm... top sail? Presumably, Conor will stick with Vimal over Russell, though the Jamaican is a fantastic option to have off the bench. The front 3 picks itself, as Vickers looked lively last weekend, McGoldrick impressed with all of the oozing quality of a perfectly cooked poached egg, and DKD was understated yet clinical as has become custom with the Mackem Messi.

David "The Rock" Rock is set to take charge of the game this weekend. Fittingly, he was the referee for the opening home game the season before last, when the Reds put 7 past Port Vale. Despite the decisive scoreline, Mr Rock's performance that day was seen as quite fussy, as he dealt with a few rule tweaks from over the summer. He bizarrely booked Liam Roberts for time wasting with the Reds 6 goals to the good. More recently, he took charge of both the Reds league defeats to Huddersfield last season, and previously a goalless draw with Bolton, for a record of won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 with Mr Rock in charge. Burton's record isn't much better with Mr Rock, losing 3, drawing 2 and winning just once (3-0 vs Doncaster in 2021). Most recently, he oversaw their 1-0 defeat to Port Vale in March 2024. He averaged just over 4 yellows a game last season, and a red every 6 games. He started the season off with 4 yellows in a 1-1 draw between Colchester and Tranmere.

My main concern, once again, is our centre back pairing. Conor has stressed that he sees MDG as a full back from now on, so hopefully his switch back to centre half is only temporary, pending cover coming in. Earl frightens me even more as a centre half, though mercifully, Shep should be back next weekend. If our defensive frailties are our achilles heel, then our forward line is our antidote. It feels as though this is another game where we're going to have to try and out score the opposition, rather than get a goal and control the game. Given our record vs Burton, I do fancy us to take the points in this one, though I still don't see us keeping a clean sheet. Backing the Reds to win, with DKD netting against his former club, and both teams to score, pays out 5/1. I fancy us to win by a couple of clear goals again, though not keep a clean sheet, and therefore I'm going for 3-1 again. DKD with a brace, after a DMcG opener.

You Reds!

 

2-0
Just that.

 

Optimism starting to build after a great win at Plymouth, the retention of a host of midfield attacking options and a new striker everyone can't wait to see.

0-3.

 

BTTS definitely. 3-1.

 

Nailed on btts i just hope we score more than them , glad it’s Burton and not Bolton we’re playing.

 

Excellent as always, and we don't see enough poached egg analogies.

4-0 Reds.

Unbridled optimism.

DKD, Didzy, Vimal and Phillips.

12,722

 

1-1
D-Mac
10,104

 

I've tried to shoehorn a bit of humour in here and there because it's very dry otherwise. I'll try for one poached egg analogy every preview from now on.

 

I’m a bit more apprehensive about this one — Gary Bowyer’s a more experienced and, arguably, more capable coach than Tom Cleverley. I can see them frustrating us and nicking something, especially given our poor home form over the last two seasons.

That said, I do think we’ve got the better players and we should carry some of the momentum and euphoria from last week into this. It might not be pretty, but I’m backing us to grind out an unconvincing win against a well-drilled and stubborn Burton side.

I’m not too worried about Maël and Josh continuing at centre-back — Burton don’t seem to have many physical threats up top, so it should suit them.

Prediction: 2–0 win.

 

2-2.

Very much hope we can have a positive start at home though. Fancy us to score. Unless Burton are dreadful going forward, struggling to see us keep a clean sheet.

 

A team we should really be beating at home no bother.

So expecting a burton win as for whatever reason we are absolutely ***** at Oakwell.

 

4-1 Reds.

 

Barnsley 6-2 Burton Mael with all 8 goals.

 

Colliers Brewers

 

2-0 Reds. DKD and Josh Earl.

 

Who knows. Squads are new, it’s early season and teams are bedding in. We’ve a threadbare back line. Hope our attacking quality comes through. 2-1 win, McGoldrick and Vickers.

 

1-1 McGoldrick

 

3-1 home win. Failing that, some other score.

 

2-1 to the Red Army.