Minority Report v Nottingham Forest

Minority Report begins once more with the usual caveat, watching via TV means that I am very uncertain about my analysis, especially away from the ball. I will do my best, but please expect mistakes.


Football is an emotional game, and believe it or not, I get more emotional than any other poster on the BBS at times. Sunday was a very emotional day for me. At 90 minutes, I had one Minority Report planned. Just 3 minutes later, I was tempted to write an entirely different report. I do not wish to lecture anyone about making decisions when they are an emotional mess, but I do know that for me, it is a mistake. Consequently, I have waited until I have calmed down before writing Minority Report this week, and I hope that it makes more sense than it would have 2 days ago.


For this game I picked my own starting eleven, just in order to contrast my thoughts with those of Gerhard Struber. I knew that he would not pick the team that I chose, but for a change, I wanted a contrast. I wanted a talking point. I do not want to reveal my team just yet, but I can tell you all that it did not include 4 right footed defenders and 4 left footed midfield players, because that would have meant that I had chosen a team with very poor balance. As for my second bugbear, players playing away from their normal position, when I saw the team, I thought it was a normal 4-4-2 with wide players. If so, we only had only 3 players (Jordan Williams, Luke Thomas and Jacob Brown) playing outside their comfort zones, and I was grateful for that. In fact, that assumption was wrong. The shape was 4-diamond-2 with Thomas at the attacking point of the diamond which means only Mowatt of our 4 players in midfield is playing in his natural position, and once again, we have 5 players outside their comfort zones.


I thought that we played well in that first half, dominating possession and creating several chances. Having said that, Forest looked like they were having this week off in order to prepare for the play-offs. They really did not look up for the fight. That said, we rarely looked like breaking the deadlock. It was very much the same old story. Struber continues to believe that Brown is a striker, which he isn’t. It was no surprise to see that most of our meaningful action came down the left. With a midfield comprising 4 left footed players, it would have been surprising if it hadn’t, but when a cross comes in from the left, the left sided player on the end of that cross is forced to take a touch, because the ball is passing in front of him towards his weaker foot, and taking a touch means that the defending side has that extra second to recover. Frankly, Forest had contributed very little to the game. They were quite content to defend deep and wait for us to over-commit or make an error.


Not unexpectedly, Struber began the second half by bringing on Cauley Woodrow. What was not expected was that he replaced right full back Ludewig. It meant a change in system. We went to 3 at the back and 3 up front (3-4-3). It was a risk, but if the score stayed as it was, we were relegated, and we continued to dominate proceedings without creating any more real clear cut chances than we had in the first half. Luke Thomas had run his race by the 67th minute, but even so, I was surprised to see him replaced by young Matty Wolfe to make his Barnsley debut. These were strange circumstances to see the coach blooding new talent. There has been talk about Wolfe for years, and I had no doubt that he was going to make his debut at some time, but the question I ask is this. Is a must win game the ideal time to do it? Wolfe played OK, but there was a real danger that the occasion could have proved too much for him. What then?


There was still no change in the pattern of the game, and it was time to roll the dice. Forest were so deep now that they were split into two units (attack and defence). The odds were that whatever we did would have made no difference to their strategy. We took off Ritzmaier, who had played another indifferent game, and we brought on another attacker in Patrick Schmidt, with Chaplin dropping deeper and Jacob Brown moving to wing back. Brown was immediately a different player, taking on the Forest left back and getting crosses in. When will Struber get the message about Brown?


Schmidt is not everyone’s cup of tea. He is not the English type forward who works hard, is physical in his challenges and who is happy to receive the ball with his back to defenders. He has converted few fans to his way of doing things, and in fairness, most of our players have not worked him out yet either because his style is so different. However, I do think he needs an open game with space behind, and Forest were not in that sort of mood. I was not hopeful. Our final change showed how desperate we were for a goal. In the 87th minute, we sacrificed another defender (Williams) and went to 2 at the back, bringing on Halme to play centre forward. His presence in the side allows us to hit the ball long, and therefore, get the ball forward more quickly. He is also a bigger threat at set pieces. In my opinion, he should have been part of the team from the start.


It looked like we would be out of luck again. We had hit the post. We had hit the bar but time was ticking away and we had nothing to show for our dominance again. Then we got a break. The ball was cleared by Forest. They had two up, and we had only Styles back. Styles was beaten and they were through on goal. This was it. It was the end of our hopes. Miraculously, Styles recovered, took the ball off Grabban fairly, kept his feet and played a pass forward. It was literally, unbelievable, but not as unbelievable as what happened next. A cross by Woodrow found Brown at the far post. His header fell to us in the box, and there was Schmidt to convert. It was not the most beautiful of goals, in fact if we are honest, it was one of the scrappiest of the season. But nevertheless, we deserved the points and Forest deserved nothing, because they had contributed nothing. It was celebrated like we had won the cup, but in reality, we are still favourites for the long drop. I don’t know whether my nerves will stand it on Wednesday, because we are still alive, and we need to win that one as well to stand even a chance of staying alive. But we still have hope

 

I have gone this far and I have not yet revealed my team. Well here it is along with my logic.


Walton

Halme, Sollbauer, Andersen

Williams (J), Brown, Mowatt, Styles, Oduor

Woodrow, Chaplin


Logic/Reasoning


I wanted to include Halme in the team because I wanted us to be stronger at set pieces at both ends of the field, but I do not think Halme is a good enough passer to play in mid-field, and being a big man, I do not believe he can work hard enough for that position either. By playing him in a back three, it allows me to pick our best two attacking wing backs, because there will be more cover in the centre of our defence when they are caught out of position, as is bound to happen.


There is an argument about our best attacking wing back on the right. I have gone with Jordan Williams, but I would not object if Ludewig was chosen instead. Our best attacking left wing back is Oduor. He is not as competent defensively as others, but today was all or nothing.


Our central three in midfield need to be hard working and good passers. In addition, the two wider players in the central three will be required to cover the opposition full backs when they attack us down our flanks, and our wing backs are tied up marking their two wide midfield players. My central anchor is of course Alex Mowatt. Wider is Styles left of him and Brown right. Brown is not a forward. He is not good at taking chances. But he does work hard, and he does create chances for others. He is worth a place in the team, even if his position is not one he usually plays. He is the only player in my team who might be outside his comfort zone, as compared to five players in some of Struber’s teams.


Up front, Chaplin and Woodrow would be told to pressure the ball carrier when he is close to them, but not to over-work the press. They would be told to stay within the imaginary lines that mark the sides of both boxes. I do not want to see them going wide, and getting in the way. Their main job is to score, and I do not want any excuses.


There, I have got it off my chest. I can relax in the knowledge that Struber has not picked that team, or that formation.


Minority Report player of the match


Mads Andersen played well again, and so did Jordan Williams, even though he would have been more effective on the right side. Callum Styles continues to improve with every game and that late tackle was a game saver, but to my eyes, one of our players was outstanding today.


The Minority Report MotM is Alex Mowatt. Everything went through him all day.

 

I agree entirely with the team you would select. Halme is a must in the team for me as he offers vital height for set pieces at both ends of the field. Brown has to play right hand side of midfield or even as wing back to utilise his pace and crossing abilities.

 

Good read. My only issue was with your "scrappiest" comment about the goal. I thought it was a great finish, typical of a natural goal scorer. With his first touch the lad controlled the ball and simultaneously took their prone defender out of the game. If he'd hit it first time, the defender would probably have blocked it.

Even then, he wasn't finished. He didn't just blast it, which would then possibly have been straight at the 'keeper. No, he hooked his foot round it to pull it wide of the 'keeper, wrong footing him at the same time. All the 'keeper could do was sit down and stick a forlorn leg out. It was a great goal.

If you don't believe me, ask my neighbours who were intrigued as to why we were running round the garden screaming.

 

Schmidt is a finisher. The club will be trying to work on the rest of his game. That’s development.

The 3 goals he scored were composed and quality finishes. That Stoke goal was 1v1 against Butland in front of a packed Ponte end - and he slotted it away.

His finish v Forest wasn’t a scramble imo, he actually controlled it to one side and poked it home.

Reminds me a little of Nardiello. He was the best finisher in the club by some distance, just his work rate etc was always good enough. But put him through on goal etc and he would score.

Schmidt still needs to develop but I think played in the right role he could do ok. You can’t coach natural finishing, but you can coach the rest.

 

On paper we’d all probably pick right footed players on the right & left footed players on the left because that’s what we’ve been brought up to think is the norm but footballs completely different now. We see wingers constantly change wings, we’ve seen Chelsea win leagues with right footed left backs in Gallas & Azpilicueta.

The reason we’re still in with a chance is that we’ve been so flexible & that players have been able to change position & formation mid-game. We’ve changed numerous games late on. You look at the teams that are doing well & they’ve got fluid systems & players that can change position - City, Liverpool, Sheff Utd, Wolves, Leeds, Brentford. If you stick to rigid formations you get left behind, see Mr Mourinho as an example of this.

I don’t understand why people are posting saying ‘we should be playing so & so instead’ & this is aimed at everyone doing the same on here, on twitter, on tykes talk etc, it just doesn’t make sense.

We’ve just completely outplayed & made more chances than 5th in the league after outplaying & making more chances than the champions. We aren’t doing a lot wrong. Other than the Stoke game we’ve at least matched if not outplayed every team we’ve come up against since lockdown. Is there much else we can ask for? We can’t buy a top quality striker so all we can do is to surely keep defending well, keep outplaying sides & keep making more chances than the opposition & hope that we take our chances.

I was someone that said I’d play Aapo Halme but the facts are when he went off at half time against Leeds for Luke Thomas we were a lot better second half & when he’s been thrown on late on against Luton & Forest he made a positive difference so maybe Struber’s getting it right.

 

I totally accept what you say about the best teams in the Premier League, and the systems they use. However, where I have a problem is that they all have better players than we do. They have more experienced players than we do. They have more quality players than we do, so that they are able to bring in quality when things are not working. For me, with our team of young kids, balance is more important, as is playing players inside their comfort zones. Anyway, as I said in my report, the Coach is not going to listen to my ramblings. They were just my thoughts.

 

if we went 352 I'd make two changes to your team.
Ludwig for Odour. More aggressive going forward. Pacier.
Thomas for Brown. Trickier. Better on the ball. More likely to create danger in the opposition half.

If he goes for the diamond:

Walton
Ludwig Solbauer Mads J William's
Halme
Styles Mowatt
Thomas
Woodrow Chaplin

ps good to see the emotion being bared in the MR.

 

Think Schmidt needs to be thanking Halme for his shove in the back. He probably wouldn’t have ended up being in that place to finish otherwise!

 

Schmidt has 3 goals in 415 mins.

Sniffer Schmidt.

 

I'd play Brown at right wing back. I think he's made for the role. That leaves a place in midfield. I've seen him play only once, but I liked what I saw so I'd select Wolf.

 

But can we achieve stability without chucking money at it?