It is what’s happened though, and if you read anything further than the headlines all the information is there to see. there are some really user friendly sources of information, illustrating the way it spreads, and how changes in behaviour change outcomes. but too many people prefer to read conspiracies or try to make up their own narratives.
So you're saying the government's statement yesterday is that what we've done in the last two weeks has reduced the anticipated deaths from 500,000 to 20,000?
I’m not going to spend all day writing out the details, like I said, plenty had been written and illustrated with simple diagrams too. you’re a grown up, spend some time researching instead of reacting.
He doesn't debate. He says "I do stats I know more than you" then when you provide statistics he completely ignores them.
What I’m saying is the information is out there, I’ve posted loads of detail on here and so have others. if you’re cherry picking facts out of context and hoping I’ll have the patience to put you straight, you should have done it a fortnight ago.
I’ve never answered anyone with more facts than I have to you And never been so ignored. So that’s a weird accusation. From the beginning of this I’ve been predicting the exponential growth, you and others posted it was impossible to know, when it happened, you’ve looked for every excuse to pick holes in the figures. At the end of it, you’ll still be arguing about some trivial matter, rather than accepting the truth of what happened.
I think our debates and opinions have come along way since 12th March ( 1st Boris press conference theard). I only started to honestly get worried following that press conference. We topped up our tin food and pasta cupboard 2 weeks prior to that (Not holding amounts) after I saw a CH4 news report from Italy and thought it a good idea. Just 17 days ago most thought a few weeks off work and it would be done.
The only fact I've seen you state over and over is that 500,000 will die. How many facts did you provide yesterday when discussing the flu? Nothing but a half arsed 'flu doesn't kill young people I think' and when provided with statistics you kept repeating 'but I gave a caveat' which I assume was you saying 'i think'. You completed ignored the statistics given to you and said that it's trivial if young people die
I honestly think had this lockdown not occurred we'd be looking at many deaths at home, due to lack of beds and respirators. We still might, New York is a prime example of what happens when local government and science is ignored by national governance. I think we were 2 months too slow in getting prepared and 2 weeks too slow on a proper lockdown. That's just my opinion, and I know others within medical field agree with that rational. This lockdown needs to go further, actually forcing those still working who really shouldnt to stay home. We need to follow a mixture of the South Korean and Chinese response to this. Total lockdown for 2 months and mass testing. I think we can mitigate the losses, but remember we're not 2 weeks into this. The numbers in the next 14 days could get far worse due to Covid-19's gestation period.
They will get worse undoubtedly. The impact of the lockdown won't be felt for 3 weeks from it starting.
I’m happy to see you quote where I’ve posted that. I’ve numerous times outright refused to predict anything. Because I know that we can’t predict deaths due to the numbers being unique to each country as no one is measuring the same and putting in the same controls. but y’know we’re not gonna let the truth get in the way of another wild accusation.
again, I’ve refused to get drawn into the details when people have tried to pull apart the stats. Particularly as we have as many conspiracy theorists claiming we’re under reporting as there are people who believe we’re inflating the figures. I prefer to point to the broad brush approach and concentrate on the general and obvious upward trend, and the fact that can be mitigated with the right control measures.
All true. The economic fallout world wide could be horrifically bad though and that has me more worried than the virus at the moment. No good answers sadly