As regards relegation, our results under Gerhard Struber have begun to convert me from thinking "we have too much to do" to the "just maybe" camp. With our last three games being away to Leeds and Brentford and at home to Forest, I reckon we need to achieve safety by the end of the home game against Wigan on Easter Monday (13 April). The 21st club in last year's Championship were Millwall, who achieved 44 points. Who knows whether that total will be enough this time around? Anyway, that would require us to gather 20 points from the next 48 (16 games), which I think equates to about 42%. Curiously, since Gerhard's arrival, I estimate we have achieved 15 points from 33 (11 games) which amounts to around 45%. Cautious grounds for optimism?
That looks like a vicious run-in, but we have a good record at Brentford (who may have nothing to play for and be resting players for the playoffs) and it may also be a dead rubber for Forest. Forest have a pretty rancid record at Oakwell, so if they have nothing to play for I'd expect us to beat them.
Don’t think 44 will be enough this time around. Reckon 46/48 will be needed which is a big ask. In current form we can do it but no doubt we’ll hit a bad run too.
I have no idea its too early to say - Historically 50 points gets you safe most of the time and I think 46 points gives you about an even chance. I fear Stoke will pull away but think Luton Wigan and possibly Huddersfield will struggle - hopefully one other side will have a really bad run too like Birmingham - I think Charlton have had theirs and seem to be picking up again now they have players fit again - but if they sell Taylor they may also struggle. We could find anything between 42 and 50 points are needed and I stilll dont know what we are likely to get - may have a better idea next month but no certainties even there
Don’t forget it’s Brentford’s last game at Griffin Park, they may be all fired up to leave on a high.
That's a good point. Though such occasions often end up being a bit of a damp squib. Personally, I'd be absolutely delighted if Brentford earned promotion at the expense of Leeds that day, as long as we'd secured safety the week before! Even better would be listening to the Weeds fans whingeing about how we played out of our skins against them the week before, and then "let Brentford win".
Since winning at Hull on the 30th November we've taken 15 points from 9 games @ 1.67 points a game. If we kept the same form over the rest of the reason we'd end up with another 31 points, leaving us on 55 points. Safe, innit?
It's a tough last three games, although I don't think Forest at home are a team worth being too worried about. It's in our hands if you look at the fixtures as we have games against all the teams around us (vice versa as well). There's a spell of eight games where every win will be vital and every defeat could be a nail in the relegation coffin, but three in particular stand out. Reading (A) Cardiff (H) QPR (A) Millwall (H) Blackburn (H) Stoke (A) Luton (A) Wigan (H)
Charlton away is a winnable and vital game. 7 more wins will give us a chance (2 wins a month). Hard to predict results but hope we try to win all games and not be too defensive away from home.
We’ll finish 19th but short term we need to catch Huddersfield and Charlton as soon as possible and then go from there.
