As per official numbers up to 31st March 2020. I think the majority of cases will be people who were tested in hospital as there seems to be very little testing outsaide of it. Sheffield tests more than the rest as it's a testing area. I wouldnt pay that much attention to the numbers (although it's clearly a useful guide to how many people are ending up in hospital) but instead i'd look at the rate of increase of the numbers as a guide to potential cases. Im a bit of a numbers saddo, and I deal with them every day, but Im certainly not a statistician, so anyone with a better insight, please feel free to chip in.
It's pretty under control here in Kirklees although we aren't getting the number broken down. For example 60 of the cases might be in Huddersfield but then 60 might be in Dewsbury or Holmfirth. It's worrying more in Barnsley that an area with 193,528 less people has reached triple figures faster.
As the op says. More of a guideline is the number of people tested and a percentage of those confirmed as having/had the virus. Eg the whole of Derbyshire up until the other day had only 110 confirmed cases. Whereas Barnsley alone had 90 at the time.
A better on the ground figure would be hospital admissions, but I can't find it for locations, only overall.
There are so many variables to take into account that one global figure makes such a comparison meaningless For example Proximity of people in such areas ie density of people per square mile, the spread of the virus is northwards in general hence there will a time lag
You've hit the nail on the head....it's the incubation period that makes things so uncertain...or at least difficult to predict with any degree of certainty.