Score predictions - Sheffield Wednesday - Wembley

Prince of Risborough · May 27, 2023

Archey said: ↑

Bumper 100 page Wembley edition (£10). 48 games, and it has come down to the one match I've dreaded pretty much all season. For a good 20 or so year spell, we suffered agonising loss after loss against Wednesday, often in unfortunate circumstances (Di Canio and Brunt's late winners, Hammill's questionable red card, Paul Warhurst and Emmanuel bloody Frimpong). But over the last 6 or 7 years, the games have relatively been uneventful (Sam Winnall's Oakwell return being the exception), and largely, we've come out on top.

The odds on Wednesday being promoted have varied between 1/100 when they were clear at the top with games in hand, to 28/1 when 4 goals down after the first leg of the play-offs. Well the Owl's have been made 8/7 favourites to achieve promotion within 90 minutes at Wembley. As is often the case, we've been made 12/5 underdogs to top off what has been an unexpectedly exceptional season.

Sheffield Wednesday's record in play off finals is won 1 and lost 1. They've never won a final within 90 minutes, needing extra time to overcome Hartlepool in 2005 at the Millennium Stadium. Their 1-0 defeat to Hull in 2016 is their only visit to the new Wembley stadium. Wednesday's 2 play off campaigns between then and now have ended in semi final defeat to Huddersfield and Sunderland. In contrast of course, we've won 2 of our 3 play-off finals, albeit our most recent victory over Millwall is the only one over 90 minutes, and have only failed to qualify for a play-off final on one occasion (vs Swansea 2021).

If you believe form plays a part in the outcome of the play offs, it's worth noting that despite Wednesday's dip in form towards the end of the season, they were 3rd in the form table over the last 5 games of the season, 4th over the last 10 and 3rd over the last 15. We were below them in each of these form tables, and finished the regular season 17th in the form table over the final 5 games.

As mentioned previously, our h2h record over Wednesday has improved in recent years. There was a long stretch between 2009 and 2020 where our only victories over the owls came in pre-season friendlies. We've won 3 of the last 4 meetings, and have been defeated in just 2 of the last 9.

One player I have concerns over is Lee Gregory. The 34 year old blades fan has a good goalscoring record against the reds. Having allegedly turned us down to join Millwall ahead of the 14/15 season, Gregory has netted 5 times for 3 different clubs against the reds, including a brace at Oakwell in March. Gregory has had a reasonably productive goalscoring season, netting 11 league goals in 40 appearances, and remains a danger despite his advancing years.

Scoring first appears to be the key for us. On 29 occasions we've scored the opening goal of the game in the league this season, and we've gone on to win 26 of those, drawing the other 3. In contrast, we've fallen behind first on 14 occasions, losing 12 and drawing 2. Wednesday haven't lost either when scoring the first goal this season. However of the 32 occasions where they've opened the scoring, they've won 25 and drawn 7. When conceding first, they've gone on to win 3, draw 3 and lose 6. So there is a tendency for Wednesday to fight back if they do suffer adversity. Coincidentally, both teams experience very early or very late goals in their favour. The game at Oakwell supplied 5 goals in the first or last 15 minutes of the game.

Championship referee Tim Robinson takes charge of this one. Fresh off the back of dishing out 7 yellow cards in Sunderland's first leg victory over Luton in the Championship play offs, Mr Robinson has dished out 165 yellow cards this season, which is 4 per game. He's averaged a red card every 6 or so games. In his 14 appointments of Barnsley games, the reds have won just 2, drawn 4 and lost 8, giving 3 red cards for and 1 against. Coincidentally, the 2 victories are the only games of ours he's refereed in league 1. He was also the referee in Barnsley's last visit to Wembley, the 1-0 3rd round cup defeat to Spurs.

This will also be the 3rd time Tim Robinson has taken charge of a Barnsley and Wednesday game. He was the referee for Wednesday's last victory over the reds, 2-1 at Oakwell in 2021, when a pair of Jordan Rhodes goals ended the reds winning streak under Valerien Ismael. He also took charge of the 1-1 draw at Oakwell, shortly before the pandemic. Cauley Woodrow cancelled out a Josh Windass goal in a drab encounter, which didn't scream local derby in the slightest. He has taken charge of 16 Wednesday games in total, with the Owls winning 7, drawing 6 and losing 3, most recently their 1-0 win over Wigan late last season. He's also awarded Wednesday 3 red cards.

Penalties. Sheffield Wednesday have been awarded 10 penalties this season. 10! Of those, they've scored 8. In turn, they've conceded just 3. In stark contrast, we of course have had 1 penalty all season, which was missed by Adam Phillips (albeit he scored the rebound), and have conceded 7, the majority of which coming during that spell of poor form just after Christmas.

When the big games have come around this season, we've generally dealt with the game pretty well. In the second half of the season, we had comfortable victories over a number of teams around us in the table (Wednesday included) and the occasion very rarely got the better of us. The expectation around Wednesday to get promoted has certainly had it's effect on the Owls performances on the pitch. After their club record unbeaten run came to an end, they went through a spell of poor results, which ultimately cost them an automatic promotion place. They crumbled in the first leg of the play-offs, and whilst their turnaround was remarkable, the pressure was off and they had nothing further to lose. Wednesday however, haven't lost to the same opponent 3 times in a season since 2004, where they were beaten 4 times in total by Blackpool.

In terms of predicting a scoreline, almost a quarter of our games this season have ended in a Barnsley win by 2 goals. Whereas the most common scoreline in Wednesday games has been 1-0 (15% of the time). In both games this season, Barnsley have covered the -1 handicap, with Cole scoring first and Norwood scoring anytime. For a repeat of that, you can get a price of approx 61/1. With that in mind, I'm going for a repeat of our last play-off visit to Wembley, and a 3-1 Barnsley win, with Cole, Phillips and Norwood on the sco resheet. YOU REDS!!!
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We’ve had two penalties this season. Benson scored against Crewe in the FA Cup. I fancy us to get a third on Monday with Norwood crashing it in off the bar in the 96th minute to win the match 2-1 and crush the blue and white hordes

Andy Mac · May 27, 2023

3-1 Reds.
Norwood, Cole, Tedic.

RedLeader21 · May 27, 2023

3-2 reds..Philips, Bobby Thomas and James Norwood.

Gregory and Smith for Piggies

Deafening Silence · May 27, 2023

3-1 reds.
Barnsley go two up in the first half and then are put under pressure. Wednesday score in the 78th minute to give them hope but we score on the counter just moments later as they press for an equaliser. I spend the entire evening messaging all my Wednesday friends and colleagues. You Reds!

HarpStaysSharp · May 27, 2023

Think it will be a tight 1st half 0-0, then we get 2 goal lead in 2nd half with Weds getting 2 lucky goals in injury time. No more goals in extra time.
Weds then win on penalties - 'cos Ref won't let us take any (apparently new EFL rule this season).

Seriously, think if we can keep concentration we'll win 2-1, but it will be nerve-wracking...

Farnham_Red · May 27, 2023

I’ve got no idea. Won’t be at all surprised if it goes to extra time and pens - though I wouldn’t fancy our chances if it does. As everyone says first goal is key
I’m thinking 2-1 to someone but no idea which way.
If I have to pick I’ll go for us. But low confidence

Redhelen · May 27, 2023

Revising my prediction. We seem to have a margin of 2 , with the goals scored going up by 2 each time so 6- 4 to us!

Deafening Silence · May 27, 2023

Redhelen said: ↑

Revising my prediction. We seem to have a margin of 2 , with the goals scored going up by 2 each time so 6- 4 to us!
Click to expand...

That’s exactly the kind of geeky number pattern I had noticed earlier, but I went for the average 3-1.

Tarntyke · May 27, 2023

Prince of Risborough said: ↑

We’ve had two penalties this season. Benson scored against Crewe in the FA Cup. I fancy us to get a third on Monday with Norwood crashing it in off the bar in the 96th minute to win the match 2-1 and crush the blue and white hordes
Click to expand...

Didn’t Tedic miss one at Donny in the JPT or whatever it was called this season.

Redarmy87 · May 27, 2023

Archey said: ↑

Bumper 100 page Wembley edition (£10). 48 games, and it has come down to the one match I've dreaded pretty much all season. For a good 20 or so year spell, we suffered agonising loss after loss against Wednesday, often in unfortunate circumstances (Di Canio and Brunt's late winners, Hammill's questionable red card, Paul Warhurst and Emmanuel bloody Frimpong). But over the last 6 or 7 years, the games have relatively been uneventful (Sam Winnall's Oakwell return being the exception), and largely, we've come out on top.

The odds on Wednesday being promoted have varied between 1/100 when they were clear at the top with games in hand, to 28/1 when 4 goals down after the first leg of the play-offs. Well the Owl's have been made 8/7 favourites to achieve promotion within 90 minutes at Wembley. As is often the case, we've been made 12/5 underdogs to top off what has been an unexpectedly exceptional season.

Sheffield Wednesday's record in play off finals is won 1 and lost 1. They've never won a final within 90 minutes, needing extra time to overcome Hartlepool in 2005 at the Millennium Stadium. Their 1-0 defeat to Hull in 2016 is their only visit to the new Wembley stadium. Wednesday's 2 play off campaigns between then and now have ended in semi final defeat to Huddersfield and Sunderland. In contrast of course, we've won 2 of our 3 play-off finals, albeit our most recent victory over Millwall is the only one over 90 minutes, and have only failed to qualify for a play-off final on one occasion (vs Swansea 2021).

If you believe form plays a part in the outcome of the play offs, it's worth noting that despite Wednesday's dip in form towards the end of the season, they were 3rd in the form table over the last 5 games of the season, 4th over the last 10 and 3rd over the last 15. We were below them in each of these form tables, and finished the regular season 17th in the form table over the final 5 games.

As mentioned previously, our h2h record over Wednesday has improved in recent years. There was a long stretch between 2009 and 2020 where our only victories over the owls came in pre-season friendlies. We've won 3 of the last 4 meetings, and have been defeated in just 2 of the last 9.

One player I have concerns over is Lee Gregory. The 34 year old blades fan has a good goalscoring record against the reds. Having allegedly turned us down to join Millwall ahead of the 14/15 season, Gregory has netted 5 times for 3 different clubs against the reds, including a brace at Oakwell in March. Gregory has had a reasonably productive goalscoring season, netting 11 league goals in 40 appearances, and remains a danger despite his advancing years.

Scoring first appears to be the key for us. On 29 occasions we've scored the opening goal of the game in the league this season, and we've gone on to win 26 of those, drawing the other 3. In contrast, we've fallen behind first on 14 occasions, losing 12 and drawing 2. Wednesday haven't lost either when scoring the first goal this season. However of the 32 occasions where they've opened the scoring, they've won 25 and drawn 7. When conceding first, they've gone on to win 3, draw 3 and lose 6. So there is a tendency for Wednesday to fight back if they do suffer adversity. Coincidentally, both teams experience very early or very late goals in their favour. The game at Oakwell supplied 5 goals in the first or last 15 minutes of the game.

Championship referee Tim Robinson takes charge of this one. Fresh off the back of dishing out 7 yellow cards in Sunderland's first leg victory over Luton in the Championship play offs, Mr Robinson has dished out 165 yellow cards this season, which is 4 per game. He's averaged a red card every 6 or so games. In his 14 appointments of Barnsley games, the reds have won just 2, drawn 4 and lost 8, giving 3 red cards for and 1 against. Coincidentally, the 2 victories are the only games of ours he's refereed in league 1. He was also the referee in Barnsley's last visit to Wembley, the 1-0 3rd round cup defeat to Spurs.

This will also be the 3rd time Tim Robinson has taken charge of a Barnsley and Wednesday game. He was the referee for Wednesday's last victory over the reds, 2-1 at Oakwell in 2021, when a pair of Jordan Rhodes goals ended the reds winning streak under Valerien Ismael. He also took charge of the 1-1 draw at Oakwell, shortly before the pandemic. Cauley Woodrow cancelled out a Josh Windass goal in a drab encounter, which didn't scream local derby in the slightest. He has taken charge of 16 Wednesday games in total, with the Owls winning 7, drawing 6 and losing 3, most recently their 1-0 win over Wigan late last season. He's also awarded Wednesday 3 red cards.

Penalties. Sheffield Wednesday have been awarded 10 penalties this season. 10! Of those, they've scored 8. In turn, they've conceded just 3. In stark contrast, we of course have had 1 penalty all season, which was missed by Adam Phillips (albeit he scored the rebound), and have conceded 7, the majority of which coming during that spell of poor form just after Christmas.

When the big games have come around this season, we've generally dealt with the game pretty well. In the second half of the season, we had comfortable victories over a number of teams around us in the table (Wednesday included) and the occasion very rarely got the better of us. The expectation around Wednesday to get promoted has certainly had it's effect on the Owls performances on the pitch. After their club record unbeaten run came to an end, they went through a spell of poor results, which ultimately cost them an automatic promotion place. They crumbled in the first leg of the play-offs, and whilst their turnaround was remarkable, the pressure was off and they had nothing further to lose. Wednesday however, haven't lost to the same opponent 3 times in a season since 2004, where they were beaten 4 times in total by Blackpool.

In terms of predicting a scoreline, almost a quarter of our games this season have ended in a Barnsley win by 2 goals. Whereas the most common scoreline in Wednesday games has been 1-0 (15% of the time). In both games this season, Barnsley have covered the -1 handicap, with Cole scoring first and Norwood scoring anytime. For a repeat of that, you can get a price of approx 61/1. With that in mind, I'm going for a repeat of our last play-off visit to Wembley, and a 3-1 Barnsley win, with Cole, Phillips and Norwood on the sco resheet. YOU REDS!!!
Click to expand...

@Archey can you remind me of our record at the new Wembley please, game by game (opposition and score)?

Tarntyke · May 27, 2023

2008, FA Cup Semi Final 0-1 loss against Cardiff
2016 L1 play off 3-1 win against Millwall
Before that in March was the 3-2 JPL victory against Oxford.
Then after that there was the 0-1 loss against Spurs in the Caraboa Cup or whatever it was called

Farnham_Red · May 27, 2023

So we always concede at least 1 and score 3 if we are going to win

Redsnut · May 27, 2023

Only see one team winning that’s us by 2 clear goals ,have it.

Prince of Risborough · May 27, 2023

Tarntyke said: ↑

Didn’t Tedic miss one at Donny in the JPT or whatever it was called this season.
Click to expand...

Quite right - I forgot that one! He selfishly prevented Jalo and Martin from trying for a hat trick then completely fluffed his spot kick.

So that's THREE for the season! Wow, what a time to be alive

Archey · May 27, 2023

Redarmy87 said: ↑

@Archey can you remind me of our record at the new Wembley please, game by game (opposition and score)?
Click to expand...

Tarntyke said: ↑

2008, FA Cup Semi Final 0-1 loss against Cardiff
2016 L1 play off 3-1 win against Millwall
Before that in March was the 3-2 JPL victory against Oxford.
Then after that there was the 0-1 loss against Spurs in the Caraboa Cup or whatever it was called
Click to expand...

Brian Mahoneys Waist · May 27, 2023

Tyketical Masterstroke said: ↑

Barnsley 1-176 Sheffield Wednesday
Click to expand...

You've got the score and the crowd ratio mixed up.

Boaty Tyke · May 29, 2023

Us...more than them
Them.....less than us

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