As I see it now: Weds will walk away with it as Champions Only top 4 can now get automatic barring massive collapses from 2 of us To get automatic we need to beat Argyle and Ipswich and maybe get something from Weds game. Might need 93 so another 30 from 13 (last 13 we have 27) 80 should get playoffs (maybe 78) so 15-17 points needed from 13 games. Only top 8 can get playoffs. Would take a mental run now from pompey or Shrewsbury to do it. Gut feel - I think 4th with about 82-84 points and then anyones guess. Win on Sat though coupled with a Bolton win v Ipswich and its game on. Stranger things have happened....
Automatics is well out of reach, but we will make play offs comfortably. I just hope Plymouth bottle it as I think we would have a good chance of winning the play offs. Ipswich would be too strong for us over two legs & would beat us on the Wembley pitch.
Agree with most of that, although Wednesday have 3 tough games in a row. They could conceivably lose all three or come out with a couple of points. If that happens, they’ll get jittery. I think it will be reasonably clear come the end of the month if we have a shout at automatic or not. It will either be a 3 or 4 horse race by that point.
What do you base that on? We've been way ahead of them in the form table since October, and they could only draw with us at the start of the season when we were looking pretty disjointed.
Considering they've only lost 3 all season, I can't see that happening. I agree with the above that top 2 is probably just out of our reach. But with the form we're in, I don't think anyone will fancy playing us in the play offs.
For us to only finish on 82-84, we'd have to have a massive drop off in form. I only see that happening if we reach a point where we're comfortably in the playoffs but automatic promotion is out of reach. Otherwise I think we'll continue as we are. We're getting better and better, and we've got the squad depth to cope with the inevitable injuries and suspensions. A lot of people thought that the wheels might come off after the Bolton and Charlton double whammy, but we've bounced back to go on another magnificent run. I reckon we'll be a couple of points either side of 90, but I think that 90 won't be enough. My guess is 92 or even 93 will be needed to guarantee automatic. It's a tough ask, but I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility.
Concern is Connell away with ROI U21s for Ipswich match. Unless common sense prevails and we can talk them out of it. Think its only friendlies and I assume most of their squad aren't regularly getting big boys football.........
With the games in hand and both Ipswich and Plymouth to play at home, I wouldn’t say top two is definitely out of reach. It’s a very tough ask yes - but our form has been better than both Plymouth and Ipswich for quite a while. It seems likely we’ll be in the play offs but I haven’t given up hope of automatic promotion.
To have any realistic chance of the top 2 we need to win the Plymouth game on Saturday Ideally we also beat Ipswich but a draw may be enough in that game especially if we can beat the Fowls. Win those and its game on - lose them and its playoffs. Often one team goes on a bad run at the critical time and just misses out - just hope its not us. Wycombe still looking to have a decent chance of a top 6 finish despite losing Ainsworth
I personally reckon the top two will remain the top 2. Also agree we have to beat Plymouth on Saturday, to give us any sight of automatic. I think it’s slightly out of reach though.
Everything to play for. We've still got 13 games to play and potentially 39 points are available. We don't know how injuries, suspensions and pressure are going to affect us or the teams around us. A win on Saturday and it makes for a tasty run in
I honestly don’t know why some folk are saying the top 2 is out of reach, plenty of games left, it’s football and anything could happen yet
I think 2nd is all to play for - momentum is a big thing at this time of year. Look at us under Hecky - squeezed into the playoffs on the last day then demolished everyone. Whoever is in form in May will win the playoffs.
Absolutely this - how many teams have finished 3rd, missing out on automatic because of stumbling form and been beaten by the team storming into 6th place in the play offs? Loads.
Looked at Derby forum last night amd they said we gave them more of a game than Plymouth. So that's a positive!
I don't think automatic promotion is completely beyond us but it will take some doing. But then again in December 2015, who was confident we'd avoid the drop never mind go up via the playoffs?
Win on Saturday cuts the Plymouth gap to 8 with two games in hand. If we win our two games in hand we just need to match their results bar one where we’d need to win and them lose. They have to play Forest Green, Accrington, Morecambe, Lincoln, Exeter, Shrewsbury, Cambridge, Bristol Rovers, Burton and Port Vale after us. If you just look at the amount of games left you can see there’s plenty of opportunity for slip ups from us, Plymouth and Ipswich. Keep the faith.
Last night I was checking the scores whilst at the match and when Plymouth were losing to Derby, we were 8 points behind them with 2 games in hand and to play them on Saturday. That looks achievable. Of course, they won so the gap is 11 points but the table changes so often, particularly the live table during games, that anything is up for grabs in my opinion. I think we’ll probably end up 4th or 5th, comfortably in the play offs but out of reach from the top 2. That would be a pretty miraculous achievement in my mind as I was expecting a bit of a transition season hovering around 10th. Duff working wonders and it’s imperative he’s still here next season regardless of the division we’re in.
