Noticed how you used the 1st of September, were as yesterday in the u.k population of just shy of 67 million we had 45 covid deaths. And were talking about another national lockdown.... jesus I'm just looking forward to getting back to normal where people can see a g.p face to face thing like that which could also save lives. The governments furlough scheme ends in September so a big clue there for you that it probably is a load of rubbish anyway.
Monday figures are downwardly skewed because of the weekend delay in reporting. Granted, Tuesdays (unless after a bank holiday) have a slight uplift as the lag in reporting unwinds. Maybe wisest to take a whole weeks figures and take a daily average.
I used the September 1st figure as it was the first one to hand. 209 today. Regardless of that your statement was that their were fewer deaths and hospitalisation than last year. You were wrong. Just say yeah fair play I was wrong doubling down helps no one. Factually in the last year there have been 1 million additional GPS appointments. Facts matter. Truth matters. We all get things wrong sometimes but if we do best just to hold our hands up. Personally I’m not in favour of another lockdown and for Johnson it is politically pretty much impossible it’s clearly just a prelude to lesser restrictions.
i suspect that there will be more Covid deaths today than the whole of the corresponding week last year but cba to check.
Were we not in a lockdown this time last years? Anyway I said and I quote " as far as I can see hospitalisations and deaths are low" I stand by that 45 yesterday from 67millon people. 1 million gp appointments were people are seen face to face or were you have a telephone consultation because they are 2 very diffrent things. I wasn't claiming to be right or wrong.
"Lockdowns don't work. And if they do work they're not needed. And if they are needed it should only be the vulnerable. And if that's not possible, it's not my job to decide how it will happen" I think that just about sums up the last 18 months or so.
Join the dots. Last year instead of being cautious it was all eat out to help out etc and by Christmas we were screwed. We then start the same ‘lull’ period In a much worse place and are in the middle of festival season unis going back etc. The problem remains that many people don’t understand what exponential means. I don’t blame you for not knowing but the govt should. your partners individual experience in an individual ward is statistically meaningless. My partner is also a nurse. Statisticians don’t nip round our house and ask her what she thinks about the numbers they just look at bed occupancy which by the governments metrics is higher than the corresponding period last year. a GPS appointment is a GPS appointment. We live in a world where I can set up building sites in Hong Kong from my spare room. Doris doesn’t need to get on the bus and drag herself into the surgery coughing and spluttering to be offered a simple diagnosis.
Dangerous to take this number and make this claim though isn't it? Covid isn't necessarily the prime cause of death in those statistics, just a positive test within 28 days. Similar to hospitalisations in the past. Go in to a hospital for reason x, but test positive when you're there, classed as a hospitalisation due to Covid.
In a few weeks we can look at the death certificates. It might not be fair to say these are Covid deaths, but it is fair to say that most of them wouldn't have died *now* if they hadn't caught Covid. 7/9/20 had 15 Covid deaths with a 7-day average of 10.6 per day. 31/8/21 had 98 deaths with a 7-day average of 107.4. (Last day with full stats). So ~10 times higher.