Chance of finishing in the top 6. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
Barnsley are strong favourites to finish above Reading, for sure. But 97% is optimistic and doesn't seem to account for last minute nerves. I wouldn't put it past Reading to win their last three matches. Just because. That means Barnsley would need four points from three matches that include a Yorkshire derby and Norwich. On current form that is more than achievable but it is in no way a done deal. Going into the Norwich game needing something would be squeaky bum time. I realise there is also the small chance of a club above dropping out of the playoffs too, presumably factored into that probability. But still. Also, note that for the last round of matches the most likely outcome only came out three times in nine matches. Football is nothing if not unpredictable.