4 wins from our remaining 8 games.

According to the Chronicle Valerian is looking for 4 wins from our remaining 8 games for a play off place. Looking at everyones fixtures this may not be enough in my opinion, although a win against Reading would be a start.

 

We looked tired and out of ideas against Wednesday. I hope we haven’t lost our momentum.

 

Even if we don't pick up another point we'd be mad not to be over the moon with this season's results. We can't afford Dike though!

 

OK, lets look at this objectively. We have 64 points, 4 wins (assuming no draws) takes us to 76 points. We're in 5th place, so 2 teams need to get to 76 points to overtake us, due to our goal difference.

So Reading need to get 14 points from 8 games. They have to play Us, Swansea, Norwich, Watford, Cardiff (plus Huddersfield, Luton & Derby). So 4 wins, 2 draws required.

Bournemouth need to get 17 points from 9 games. They have to play Middlesboro, Norwich, Brentford (plus Wycombe, Stoke, Blackburn, Coventry, Millwall & Huddersfield)

Cardiff need to get 18 points from 8 games. They have to play Reading & Brentford (plus Wycombe, Birmingham, Rotherham, Forest, SW & Blackburn)

Middlesboro need to get 20 points from 8 games. They have to play Us, Bournemouth, Watford (in the next 3 games) then Wycombe, Luton, SW, Rotherham & QPR)

Furthermore, 76 points has guaranteed at least 6th place in the 2nd Tier in all but 2 of the seasons since the playoffs started in the 86/87 season. Only the 2014/5 season (78 points) & 2016/7 (80 points) have a higher points tally.

So, it's not guaranteed, but 76 points has been enough in 95% of the time.

I also don't think we'll lose 4 games as well, so factor in a draw or two and we'll get to 77/78 points.

Let's say for the sake of arguing that we get that draw against Reading = 77 points. Reading would still need to get 14 points from 7 games

 

Probably stating the obvious, but the Reading game is a really key game, just like the Bournemouth game was. If we win that and 3 more from the last 7, Reading will need at least 4 wins and 2 draws (very probably more) from their last 7. If we do beat Reading, I will be relatively confident that we'll secure a play - off spot. If we lose that game, it could be around 50/50.

 

That's pretty much my take on it as well VoR

 

Reading game for me is more of a must not lose game even a draw keeps us with that 2 point gap.

But we will win anyways.

 

I don’t think he could successfully change it if we wanted. It suits the players we have. That’s not to say we have no footballers in the team, just not enough to outplay teams at this level for long enough periods.

 

I think it was just a case of one match too far combined with poor tactics that lost us the last game, earlier on in the winning run teams knew how we played but the work rate of our lads just didn,t allow them to break us down, hopefully they,ll have had time to recharge their batteries and go again next week, i would say that we have a favourable run in compared to most in the frame, although there will be teams fighting foe their lives...

 

A Carol Vordermanesque post. With a hint of Rachel Riley (phoooaaarr).

 

Thanks mate. I do try and do my best, when I'm not larking about

 

Currently, Bournemouth will feel they have a squad capable of getting to 76/77 points, especially after a good win against Swansea last time out.

If they beat us, Reading will also feel like they can get to a similar total. So, I’d say 4 wins will be enough if we beat Reading. If, not we’ll need more points. Maybe a couple of draws or an extra win.

Of course as more games are played the equations become clearer, and there’ll no doubt be twists and turns as we go on.

Either way, if we win 4 and lose 4, even if that’s enough for a play off play, you’d probably want to go into play off games in better form than that.

 

No matter what permutations there may be we're heading into squeaky-bum time.

 

A couple of wins straight after the International break would give us the momentum to comfortably make the play offs in my opinion. I think the Luton game looks tougher than the Reading game though.

 

Shame that Rachel Riley is a raving maniac.

 

And ............... ? All women are ;-)

Ps before I get attacked again on here I do know they're all not. There's a woman who works in sarnie shop, a lollipop lady and mi Nan.

 

Personally I thought that against Derby, and then we stood toe to toe with Bournemouth.

I think the Wednesday game was just a bad day at the office. It was a must win game for them, and I think that was probably what was decisive.

I fully expect us to put in a good showing vs Reading after a fortnight break.

 

If we get victories over Reading and Middlesbrough, I can see 4 wins being enough. Would like to see us get 5 or 6 though just to be sure.

 

I’m hoping we are going to be revitalised after the international break & determined to put another run together, however I think we will actually struggle & just fall short.