And so to the Flat Turf......

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by orsenkaht, Mar 21, 2021.

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  1. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    The first big race of the new Turf Flat season is the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster on Saturday. Eastern World has been backed to favourite on the back of a February win at Meydan. The Godolphin horse incurs a 5 lbs penalty for that race, meaning he is only 4 lbs better off with John Gosden's HAQEEQY for a 13 length beating by that horse at Doncaster over 7 furlongs last September. Haqeeqy has been hammered in the betting today but is still available at 6/1 in a couple of places. He is guaranteed a place in the lineup and is a firm intended runner for the new joint-licence team of John and (son) Thady Gosden. He could go off even shorter.
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 21, 2021
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  2. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    Sounds good to me.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 22, 2021
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  3. x11barnsley

    x11barnsley Well-Known Member

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    He’s showing 7/2 and 4’s now as there has been money for him and Eastern World.
    A very good 7lb claimer has now been booked ( Benoit ........ ) so let’s hope !
     
    x11barnsley, Mar 23, 2021
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  4. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    I like look of Danyah and Ghalyoon too.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 23, 2021
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  5. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    Can't get my head around the flat yet.

    Bring on Aintree!
     
    Fonzie, Mar 23, 2021
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  6. KamikazeCo-Pilot

    KamikazeCo-Pilot Well-Known Member

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    Not examined cards yet. I'll post my winners nearer the time :) !
     
    KamikazeCo-Pilot, Mar 23, 2021
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  7. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    The national field is looking better everytime sumat pulls out. Just waiting on vanity entries pulling out and bumping everything up 5lbs. The likes of Santini, Yala Enki and Bristol Du Mai, Pym and Ok Corral won't even run. I like to make selections from 8-11 carrying no more than 11 stone unless they have graded, listed chase form over 3 miles. Out of top weights only Storyteller appeals but I don't fancy that off 11st 10 after usual defections.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 24, 2021
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  8. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Totally agree with Danyah as a danger Mr SD. I had a bit at 12's at the same time as I backed Haqeeqy. I believe Ghalyoon has been taken out.
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 24, 2021
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  9. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    I had smaller tickles on Burrows Saint, The Storyteller and Anibale Fly at longer odds than they are now, and I think they'd all have some sort of chance if they turn up. But after Kelso, this race looks Cloth Cap's to lose. He is absolutely thrown in at the weights - by 14 lbs according to the official handicapper, and a good 9 lbs clear on Timeform ratings. I was on at 6's. He is currently 9/2 best in one place. That equates to just a 18% chance, by my calculations - a huge under-estimate of his actual chance, in my view.
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 24, 2021
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  10. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Shock news - Sheikh Hamdan has passed away. He owned Danyah and I think Haqeeqy is owned by his daughter. It's not clear yet how this will affect running plans. The Sheikh was 75 and I think was still Deputy ruler of Dubai and Finance Minister.
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 24, 2021
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  11. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I think Cloth Cap has a great chance too. I'm waiting for the race to go non-runner no bet so I can have £20 quid on it. My picks so far are Cloth Cap, Canelo, Kimberllite Candy, Burrow's Saint, Acapella Bourgeois and Shattered Love. Out of all those I was really impressed with Shattered Love running on for third at Cheltenham.

    As for Lincoln Ghalyoon has been scratched. I'm undecided over Eastern World and Haqeeqy for my win bet but will definitely be backing Danyah e/w.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 24, 2021
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  12. x11barnsley

    x11barnsley Well-Known Member

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    I noticed Shattered Love as well !

    He used to be a very good top class hurdler 3/4 years ago and has shown signs of stamina for 3 miles +.
    He’s also a decent jumper.

    Like him as well
     
    x11barnsley, Mar 24, 2021
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  13. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    I think Alan King is saving Canelo for the National judging by it's exertions near the finish in the Grimethorpe. It didn't look like it was pushed out to try and win but glided into contention two out. A very frustrating watch.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 24, 2021
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  14. ATY

    ATYKE1 Well-Known Member

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    Are you going?
     
    ATYKE1, Mar 24, 2021
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  15. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Not currently possible, as I understand it.
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 24, 2021
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  16. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    I won't be going but I know after Good Friday that 4 owners will be allowed to attend. Inevitably that will mean people tagging along and getting in when they shouldn't through friends of friends etc. I bet that still goes on now. As for watching the racing itself. If courses are anything like Pontefract they are intertwined with public parks. The people of Pontefract can watch the racing without the hospitality all season if they go onto the inside of the course.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 24, 2021
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  17. Mrs

    MrsHallsToffeerolls Well-Known Member

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    4th of June first one at Doni (limited) and am sure Leger tickets were on sale this week.
     
    MrsHallsToffeerolls, Mar 24, 2021
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  18. x11barnsley

    x11barnsley Well-Known Member

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    As far as I know, limited numbers ( 1,000 or percentage ) will be allowed as from mid May.

    The BHA has to sort it out with the government unless it has happened recently without me knowing
     
    x11barnsley, Mar 24, 2021
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  19. Egh

    Egham Tyke Well-Known Member

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    Kempton midweek don't usually get 1,000 people in so may try and get a ticket there even though it's AW
     
    Egham Tyke, Mar 24, 2021
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  20. KamikazeCo-Pilot

    KamikazeCo-Pilot Well-Known Member

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    Based on your advice and Orsen's backup I have had a small bet on Daniyah on the Betfair exchange . 2 quid on the nose at 22.00. I can put something on the place on Friday/Saturday. Still not looked at cards myself but as I say based on what you both say 22.0 is a good price
     
    KamikazeCo-Pilot, Mar 24, 2021
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