Coronavirus: Five reasons why rise in cases is not all it seems

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Gally, Sep 9, 2020.

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  1. Gally

    Gally Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Gally, Sep 9, 2020
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  2. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Isn't this just a list of things that a few of us on here have been saying all along?

    Complete shambles. Still can't believe people argued against 'test more people/find more positive cases' being genuine.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Sep 9, 2020
    #2
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  3. BarnsleyReds

    BarnsleyReds Well-Known Member

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    It's absolutely true that this isn't as bleak as it sounds. It's still a worrying and marked increase though. Community transmission is not a good thing in any circumstances.

    It's probably as a result of schools going back, I would assume. This inept government has allowed this to happen when it did not need to.
     
    BarnsleyReds, Sep 9, 2020
    #3
  4. Gally

    Gally Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    No idea. I dont read most of it.
     
    Gally, Sep 9, 2020
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  5. John Peachy

    John Peachy Well-Known Member

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    A well balanced article. The only way out of this is a national testing programme & possibly anyone testing positive being tagged in some way, to make sure they don't break curfew. Draconian, but hell, we are already living in Orwellian times. So many people are flouting the guidelines & they are so unjoined up. Largely society needs to be returning to normal. A weekly testing programme would be expensive, but would allow things largely get back to normal.
     
    John Peachy, Sep 9, 2020
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  6. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Just start yet more threads about it :D
     
    Loko the Tyke, Sep 9, 2020
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  7. BarnsleyReds

    BarnsleyReds Well-Known Member

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    I don't think anyone argued against 'test more people/find more positive cases', did they? I certainly didn't see it.

    A good metric shown in the article Gally linked is the % of positive cases. It doesn't show the whole story though still, as in the beginning only very likely cases were being tested. The trend in this metric is the thing that worries me the most right now.

    I still maintain that we could have got a far better heath result from the economic impact we've caused.
     
    BarnsleyReds, Sep 9, 2020
    #7
  8. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    You must have missed all the Trump threads a couple of months ago when he said increasing testing was leading to an increase in positive tests. I was basing it on that. There were definitely people who didn't correlate the two and I include my friends in that.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Sep 9, 2020
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  9. dreamboy3000

    dreamboy3000 Well-Known Member

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    Glad to see an article like that and they should be more of them. It might help stop people agreeing so much with how controlling Boris is, as with this latest You Gov survey......

    LIVE SURVEY OF THE DAY: DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE NEW LOCKDOWN RULES WHICH LIMIT SOCIAL GATHERINGS IN ENGLAND? PLUS, WHICH MATTERS MORE, THE ECONOMY OR SAVING EVERY LIFE, AND CURFEWS IN THE UK

    LIVE POLL Final weighted results published at the end of day.

    Do you support or oppose new lockdown rules which limit social gatherings in England to six people?

    Strongly support 49%
    Somewhat support 29%
    Somewhat oppose 9%
    Strongly oppose 7%
    Don't know 5%
     
    dreamboy3000, Sep 9, 2020
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  10. BarnsleyReds

    BarnsleyReds Well-Known Member

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    I think the thing Trump was (rightly) criticised for was saying that they should “slow the testing down” to have less cases.
     
    BarnsleyReds, Sep 9, 2020
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  11. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    There was a lot of mocking just for him saying that. The other criticism was correct, but that's not where it was all directed.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Sep 9, 2020
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  12. Don

    Donny-Red Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think people argued against it; but when Trump said that the US stats only looked bad because they were doing more testing, many of us were incredulous. Obviously the high number of deaths wasn’t a result of high numbers of tests.
     
    Donny-Red, Sep 9, 2020
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  13. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I can only say how it was interpreted by me.. Not a hill worth dying on but it was definitely there with some people.

    Even the death rate at the time, vs. the size of the country and the complete failure of Cuomo in New York, wasn't a patch on Europe.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Sep 9, 2020
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  14. ryc

    rycalshaw Well-Known Member

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    Don,t really see where all the "shock horror" is coming from, spikes like this and local lockdowns were all predicted and expected by the scientists as soon as lockdown was lifted...
     
    rycalshaw, Sep 9, 2020
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  15. Plankton Pete

    Plankton Pete Well-Known Member

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    That's how I recall it too (I don't have the time or the inclination to check).
     
    Plankton Pete, Sep 9, 2020
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  16. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    Nah the only way out of it is to put an ounce of effort into protecting the vulnerable and actually forcing them to protect themselves.

    What really really pisses me off is that we've now had over 6 months to prepare for 'a second wave' but unless I've missed it there has been absolutely no attempt at all to increase the number of trained carers to help our vulnerable isolate. Nothing at all. They will die in huge numbers in the winter because a/. they are allowed to do exactly the same as a fit 18 year old and are choosing to put their own lives at risk and b/. they have had sod all help to protect themselves by this inept government.
     
    SuperTyke, Sep 9, 2020
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  17. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    I've got to disagree with part of a). One of the reasons it's mainly just affecting young adults at the moment, is that many of the elderly and vulnerable haven't trusted the government enough to actually come out of lockdown. I'm supporting mine and the wife's parents exactly the same as before. The other reason is that the spread hasn't got anywhere near March/April levels yet.
     
    pontyender, Sep 9, 2020
    #17
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  18. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    Many of them did isolate really well, many are still doing so but when we have a virus that everyone knows has an extremely low mortality rate in young people and an extremely high mortality rate in the elderly then at some point you have to enforce tighter restrictions on those most at risk just like we do with alcohol and cigarettes etc.
     
    SuperTyke, Sep 9, 2020
    #18
  19. Old

    Old Gimmer Well-Known Member

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    I wish I had your indefatigable optimism regarding Trump, his competence, his motives etc. etc. I can just about accept your apologist stance in relation to Johnson and his team of incompetents, but Trump? Good God. I really enjoyed your interviews during lockdown though!
     
    Old Gimmer, Sep 9, 2020
    #19
  20. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    My apologist stance in relation to Johnson? I would love you to point me in the direction of that. Genuinely, where have I said anything to support that claim?

    Just as an aside to support what I was trying to convey. The US has had 3% deaths vs. positive tests where as the UK has had 11.7% deaths. That's including the 50,000+ deaths from just two states which massively skew the numbers. Both countries are around 0.06% of deaths vs. population, with the UK slightly higher and the US slightly lower.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Sep 9, 2020
    #20
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