It seems the thinking is infection will likely lead to a increased immune response or immunity in most as that is generally the case with a Virus. If we end up with no immunity and no vaccine then I guess we'll just have to get on with life.
This is from the daily mail (apologies). Its not he article I originally read but gives the idea Testing excrement could help provide early detection of who has COVID-19 before they show other symptoms, an expert said. Researchers at Australian National University found people infected with the virus begin excreting traces of COVID-19 almost a week before the flu-like symptoms start to emerge. A similar study in the Netherlands showed positive traces of coronavirus were found in fecal matter before before cases were officially reported. Epidemiologist Dr Aparna Lal said that if there is early detection in sewage, it could narrow down efforts to find people in the community who are carrying the illness. 'If we can start detecting it, it may be a way that we can evaluate the impact of easing the restrictions,' Dr Aparna Lal she told The Age on Monday. 'What this study will do is let us see whether sewage could be used to continuously monitor the presence of the virus in the community even when case numbers go down. This work will also tell us if sewage monitoring can serve as a warning system to give us a heads up before case numbers go up.' Professor and microbiologists Gertjan Medema worked on the study in Amersfoort, in the Netherlands and said tests from one sewage plant could potentially represent one million people, The Australian reported Samples will be taken from Canberra sewage where they will then be examined in labs at the ANU John Curtin School of Medical Research. Experts will then determine if there are traces of the killer virus in the fecal matter. Immunologist and Nobel laureate Professor Peter Doherty said the method sounds 'pretty unattractive' but is a good screening measure into how many people could be infected. 'With those two viruses at least, we can pick up one in 10,000 infected people so that would be a very good screening measure, and I know a number of people in the country looking at this and I expect we'll do it.'
https://bccjapan.com/university-of-oxford/ We will have to hope for the best and if they are right other countries will have to be told how the vaccine is made so as many of the world can have it as quickly as possible, so the rest of the world don't have to wait in line until everyone in the UK is sorted. It explains in the article really well how they have sorted it so far.
Good that existing licensed drugs are being trialled as treatment for Covid 19 either as individual drug therapy or multiple drug therapy. Getting a license for a new vaccine is complicated - stringent tests are carried out - single and double blind trials which all take time. A vaccine may work but it has to be shown to be safe for all groups - e.g. is it safe for children/pregnant women? Also whilst a vaccine may work the possible serious side effects, some long term, have to be considered. It would be brilliant if a vaccine was developed and approved by September but it's a bit of a long shot.
The government seem to be talking it up.... https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-launches-vaccine-taskforce-to-combat-coronavirus I believe if the trials go well the government will do all they can to get it mass produced so all the UK not just the million being mentioned can have the vaccine by the autumn as we all know it's the only way to get back to full normality. I understand that plenty won't trust having it or have a conspiracy theory like the one about everyone being chipped to be kept track of 24/7.
Something I just watched on CNN... When he was on the other week he was rightly cautious. Now the chances of a billion vaccines by the end of the year is being mentioned because of the partnership they are in with one of the biggest companies in their field.
I developed hay fever in the summer of 1976 when I was 20 by falling off a step-ladder into the hedge that I was trimming with electric hedge trimmers. I had a massive sneezing fit and that night my nose blocked up so I couldn't breath through it, for the next 20 years or so, the months of June and July were simply awful. I used to sit in the computer room because it was air-conditioned to get some relief. I heard about the jab but it had already been stopped by then. I was prescribed anti-histamines which worked for a while till my body started to tolerate them and they just stopped working. About 20 years ago I read on the internet about pro-biotics, in particular Actimel which it said was good for the immune system's response to pollen, so I started drinking one every day. It took a few years but I now hardly have any problems at all.
Pro biotic drinks are the best example of marketing magic I can think of (poss second to Apple). Bloke walks into a Yoghurt factory and sees all the waste liquid coming off the yoghurt. ‘What happens to that?’ It goes off to animal feed Why It’s waste Isn’t it full of the same ingredients as the yoghurt? Yep So why aren’t you selling it? Because no one wants to buy it! watch this! it’s not just the fact it used to be a waste product, they actually sell it at premium prices. in other news you don’t ‘catch’ hay fever, neither can it be cured, but it does randomly appear and disappear. I was 35 before I first suffered (and almost every year I have a runny nose for days before I remember what’s causing it)
As a young un I suffered terribly with hay fever, eyes streaming, sneezing continually then as I got older the symptoms eased then for a few years and eventually it vanished altogether then in the last few years I’ve started get very mild symptoms again.
I did. Absolutely. Before my hedge trimming incident I never had so much as a sniffle. I probably took loads of pollen into my nose which caused my immune system to overreact to it, leading to a long lasting and severe allergic reaction. The jury is probably still out on the pro-biotic, but if it wasn't the pro-biotic then it was a hell of a coincidence when my allergy subsided in the space of a couple of years after I started drinking it. Last year there was a very interesting series of programs on Radio 4 about the human biome where this subject was mentioned and the scientific evidence supports the assertion that the immune system is strengthened by pro-biotics including the particular one in Actimel (L. casei).
It would be brilliant if people could start being vaccinated by the end of the year, but it’s still a very long time to wait. How we social distance effectively in the coming months whilst trying to kick start the economy is going to be key to saving lives. As yet, no country has been able to demonstrate they can do this for a prolonged period. I would much prefer another 3 weeks of complete lockdown until there’s more data out of South Korea etc. on transmission rates and our track and trace system is fully tested.
The media keep bringing out Boris having a five point road map over the next six months, with the last things (including going to live sporting events) allowed at the start of October. Maybe i'm being too positive but I can't see that being allowed without a vaccine so for it to be mentioned they must be positive that these trials are going well and they can get us all dosed up by then.
I admire your faith in the knowledge within the Tory Party. The vast majority of scientific opinion from those who actually know what they are talking about is there is no chance of a vaccine this year - even if we now have one that works its months to trial it properly and thats assuming no issues are found with it. Just launching a barely trialled vaccine in a mass vaccination program is too stupid for words. Oh damn maybe you are right - the UK and USA may well be dishing something out later this summer. If they do for once I would be on the side of the Anti Vaxers
I wouldn't trust them so much but the scientists who have been working on it five months we should have faith in. I'd like to know still why infections have leveled off whilst deaths have dropped greatly and if it's down to vitamin D protection, social distancing mutating the virus thus weakening it or something else. Even without a vaccine social distancing will hopefully burn it out like looks to have happened in a few countries.
As I understand it the road map will just set out the potential ordering of the release of restrictions, without putting any dates to them. I agree that it would be very surprising if attendance at sporting events will be allowed before there is a vaccine. That will be one of the last restrictions to be released, and there won’t be a date put to it because we have no idea what things will look like in 6 months.
Did you watch the video? A billion vaccines by the end of the year is “not totally unreasonable”. That’s from the Oxford scientists currently trialling a vaccine, not the government.
I would say that the people that know what they are talking about are the scientists that make the the thing ie the professor at oxford who says it could be done in September. Not the government who know **** all blabbing on it will be 18 months same old tosh they spout.