Last night I had the misfortune to read a speech given by Sir Ivan Rogers last week which explains in some detail where we are in the Brexit process and our options going forwards. I used the word misfortune deliberately not because of the actual speech is hard going - it isn't - its well put together and well argued, but because basically it highlights the fact that still far too many people - including the government and media don't appear to understand what can and cannot be achieved. Its not a very long speech - probably takes around 15 minutes to read - but anyone - remain or leave who wants a better understanding of where we are and what the options and consequences of following them are may find it quite illuminating. https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/blog-sir-ivan-rogers-speech-text-in-full/ my summary - there are hard choices to be made but ignoring reality and pursuing options that demonstrably cant work is harming the country significantly when there are serious consequences to be addressed which ever approach we take from here. The cynic might suggest that the Government knows we are heading for severe problems and wants to ensure there are others to blame (Notably the EU) when it all goes tits up rather than mitigate to some extent the issues but be the target of the blame for the problems that remain.
There's going to be a prolonged assault on the minds and the psych of everyone in this country.. Though fear and propaganda until the electorate knuckles under and toes the line .. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44292870
One of the many worrying things for me.... and there are a huge amount of worries in all of this, is the triple whammy of rising inflation (especially when it tips into interest rate pressure), reduction in trade and therefore jobs from foreign owned organisations and the increasing amount of technology that could replace or reduce more menial traditionally cheaper labour. Let's roll this forward 5 years. If the economy tanks, if there are high interest rates and high unemployment.... who will the public blame? Themselves? The media? The EU? Politicians? Very worrying times, and very concerning we have such a lightweight political class at this time.
I'm not sure I would trust anyone who made his fortune by potentially screwing up our economy and forcing us out or the ERM. It may have been the right thing long term for the UK - I'm not sure, but I well remember that day, my mortgage repayments looked like they would be more than my income before we dropped out of the ERM and we wasted billions buying sterling in the attempt to stay in. Basically anyone who was happy to do that to make a buck couldn't give a flying **** about us.
The big problem with Brexit is not the political and trade agreements. *That is the easy part*, or should be, if we hadn't trusted the same Westminster politicians that had been incompetent for the last 40 years to suddenly and miraculously overnight become competent and sort things out in the best interests of the country and not their own pocket. The *hard* part, which is still completely up in the air is for every organization in the UK to review, and update where necessary, every single business process that they have to see how it is impacted. This is not just import/export paperwork or similar, but HR processes - can we still employ person X born in the EU, is their driving licence still valid, what is the tariffs to trade with those customers, etc, etc, etc. This is a 10-20 year project, crammed into 2 years, with no agreed functional or non-functional requirements over half-way through.
I'd love to believe you are right but I think we will definitely exit the EU next March and move into the "transition phase". I have no idea what will happen after that whether we will hang in there for ages in a worst of all worlds position - most likely, or carry on to some form of new relationship outside the customs union, or crawl back in. It would help if our politicians agreed on the end destination but that wasnt actually clear from the Referendum. The only thing thats clear to me is we are in a mess and not coming out of it any time soon
Who are you referring to as "made his fortune by potentially screwing up our economy and forcing us out or the ERM" - not sure you can accuse Rogers of that and I dont know who else you can mean. In any case by more luck than judgement it was ultimately a really good outcome for the UK
He meant Soros, from the second link, hedged against the pound when we were propping it whilst in the ERM back in the early 90's. I'm not sure trust is a measure of anyone these days, even the most trustworthy can be smeared or painted in such a fashion by our press to meet their populist fear driven agenda.
I’m clear in my mind who I blame - Michael backslapping beer swilling Farage. It was he who put the wind up the Tories so much they thought they would get rid of him by having a referendum in the first place! What sticks in my throat about this character is that he continues to enjoy his feather bedded life on his MEP salary safe in the knowledge that he will have his bloated MEP pension to fall back on when we leave the EU. In truth I don’t have much time for any politicians but even M Thatcher recognised that the benefits of being in the EU outweighed the disadvantages and fought to reform it from within What do we do next? Well we’ve had two referenda already. Let’s have another and make it the best of three
We had a black and white vote on a rainbow of issues (as Martin Lewis elequently put it ) we should be given the facts after negotiations on what we are letting ourselves in for by leaving or staying. The fact that we are leaving on the terms of hardliners or staying in on the extreme opppsites on this cack handed referendum is appalling imo . Let’s have the truth not what extremists on both sides are spewing
Another way of looking at it is that he called the situation correctly and made a vast profit by correctly anticipating the reactions of the financial markets and backing that judgement with (vast sums of) his own money. He therefore looks to me like someone with more credibility than the politicians and I think we ought to be listening to him when he speaks of our economic future. The other thing to say is that he is only suggesting the electorate be given a further vote informed by a little more knowledge. Beyond that, it's up to us!
Not only that, but his kids have Germany passports and citizenship through their mother giving them benefits that our kids will now not have.
I'm inclined to think that we'll end up with a very long "transition phase". As Scoff says, it's a decades-long project whichever way you look at it. The only way I can see it working at all is by extending that transition period, during which we will be technically outside the EU, but essentially bound by its rules. Then they can start chipping away at everything that still needs to be done. The funny thing is that by the time we've done all of the work that properly leaving the EU will require, the demographics will probably have changed to the extent that there will be a decisive pro-EU majority. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a transition period that starts next March and lasts until we rejoin.
Clearly we are a nation deeply divided and the frustration and aggression on both sides of the debate are doing little to heal the rift. I feel that all parties need to recognise that, like most things in life, there is a requirement for compromise. Unfortunately, in any compromise neither party is rarely and wholly satisfied with the final outcome. This brings me to two of the many issues that will require compromise which will leave no one completely satisfied with the result of negotiations.The first is the Northern Ireland border with Eire. It is patently obvious that everyone is in favour of maintaining the ‘status quo’ of an open border, but to achieve this compromise will be required and this will undoubtedly be some form of customs union not necessarily ‘The’ Customs Union. The other issue is that the UK and the EU currently have the highest levels of food standards and animal welfare in the world. In order to secure trade deals those high standards, most likely, will be compromised. In many non EU countries and the US in particular beef cattle are injected with growth hormones like ‘Flexx’, pigs are injected with ‘Ractopamine’, chicken is washed in ‘Chlorine’ and the milk from cows infected with diseases such as ‘Mastitis’ is allowed into dairy products. All these practices are currently banned under UK/EU legislation. It is my fear that the relaxation of our legislation and our nation’s health may be the compromise to secure trade deals post Brexit. That said and as someone who voted remain I must accept that this compromise may have to be made and reluctantly I will have to accept it. My unsatisfactory outcome will be that I may have to become ‘vegan’.
No option will be taken until the last possible moment so that the EU can be blamed for enforcing a solution. This is due to the current options all being economically worse than our present situation. There will be some serious spin when it all works out but lest we forget who brought us this mess, DC and GO. The tories monopoly on economic integrity will be blown to bits by Brexit and the next recession. Even their media chums won’t be able to spin it. Unfortunately it will be a mess that takes a century to clean up. Can’t wait.
There are many sad and depressing aspects to this whole farce - in the end people's already low faith in politicians has been damaged further and can only let in more extreme elements. I do look forward to seeing Brexit supporting factory workers in Sunderland losing their jobs though, along with the fishing trade reliant Brexit supporting Grimsby, to name but two players that have been furiously sawing at the branch of the tree they are sat on. But, at least they'll have a green passport - something to happily examine as they queue for hours in the non-EU queues at airports and ports.
